Pass up or accept the coin flip?

[davidross]

Curious who feels you need to gamble to win and who waits for the deckto hit them hard.

UB $200 tournament.oney bubble has just burst so everyone gets $256 for their $215. I'm in 6th place with 20K. Very good player (Leggggggy) pushes his last 7,800 from EP. I'm 2 off the button with 99. My read is that I'm probably a coin flip. I think he has a bigger pair just as often as he has a smaller pair, and the rest of the time he has overs. Blinds are 400/800 with 100 antes so there is 2200 in dead money in the pot too.

Do you take the +EV play assuming my read is right? If I win the pot I will actually be the chip leader.

[AllinDan]

seems like a pretty good spot to get it in. I think he has a smaller pair more often than you give credit, and the dead money in the pot is enticing

[mikeJ]

Take it, holler. I would be surprised if he is shoving tighter than 66+/AJ+.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.497% 50.78% 00.71% 506076108 7122864.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 48.503% 47.79% 00.71% 476239092 7122864.00 { 99 }

[mlagoo]

david,

this is for sure a call, legggy is good enough to be pushing wide enough to make this a good call. there's really no reason that i can think of to avoid this +cEV spot.

[nath]

I think this is a definite call considering you're a slight favorite to overs and that there is much more dead money in the pot with the higher antes.

I also think that with the high antes on UB a <10xBB push in EP is wider than you think.

[gwhiz_612]

Good spot to take a shot. If you are playing to win its time to get some chips.

[shaundeeb]

def.

[Cornell Fiji]

push

[registrar]

I've watched you play and quite apart from the straight EV considerations, which make this a pretty easy push, a big stack will give you a greater edge than it would an average player and this gives you the chance to remove a strong opponent.