$400 NL Two Math Problems

Eagles · #1 01-31-2007, 09:06 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($645.15)
BB ($225)
UTG ($571.30)
MP ($800.70)
CO ($275.90)
Hero ($784)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, 2 folds, MP raises to $140, Hero?

Working under the assumption villain's range here is kk+ (It may be just AA) can I call profitably here? If it's a fold how deep do you think we need to be here to call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($445)
Button ($416)
SB ($378)
BB ($392.50)
UTG ($939.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $16, 2 folds, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $36, Hero calls $36, BB raises to $108, UTG folds, Hero ?

Working under the assumption villain shoves 100% of turns can hero call profitably. If hero calls should he be calling a push on any cards that are a not a 9 or A

berserk · #2 01-31-2007, 10:20 PM

Hand 1 isnt even close i dont think, putting in 18% of stack with SCs to stack AA,KK is way off to be profitable.

Hand 2, youre calling $70 to win 50+36+36+108+270 behind = 500, you hit ~1/6, 70*6 = 420 so yes you can call if he is pushing any turn with a +EV of $80, ignoring his redraw. If you assume he has a set he would have 10 redraw outs, which he will hit ~1/5 on the river, so his equity in the $850 pot would be about $170, so your +ev of $80 turns into a -ev of $90. If he has QJ he has 4 redraw outs, which hits ~1/11, so youre equity would be neutral. So it looks like you cant call profitably if you are sure he is pushing the turn and his range is sets and 2 pairs.

Looking at other cards, obviously hearts, a heart gives you 15 outs or about 1/3 equity, although more likely Qh and 7h would not be outs giving you 13 outs to the river meaning you would be pretty close to neutral EV calling his <PSB push, without doing the math.

Eagles · #3 01-31-2007, 10:22 PM

Alright I did some math for the 2nd one

Assume his range is 77 and qj and I need to call 72 on the flop into a 236 pot.

i'm 87.5% against a range of 77 and qj

and i need to call 72 into 236

8/45 chance of hitting my straight

Also I have a 8/45 chance of hitting a flush draw that doesn't pair the board.

If I hit a flush draw then I have 31.25% equity which gives me just enough to call, I'm basically breaking even if the turn is a heart and I call.

so 8/45 we break even
8/45 we win (pot x 0.875)
29/45 we lose $72

pot= 838

838 x 0.875 x (8/45)= 130 calling is +EV