Final Table: Call an all-in with AK?

[rms39]

Hi everyone. I'm new to 2+2 (first post). This hand happened about a month ago, and I'm still curious what other players would have done. Sorry for not having a good format, etc. I don't have the hand history since it happened awhile ago.

$100+$8 tournament on Pokerroom.com 9 players left (were about 350).

UTG: 23,000 chips
UTG+1: 15,000 chips
Me: $40,000 chips
MP2: $22,000 chips
MP3: 47,000 chips
CO: 14,000 chips
Button: 19,000 chips
SB: 17,000 chips
BB: 21,000 chips

Blinds: 1000-2000 (no antes)

I get AKos, and raise it to 6000 from early position. MP2 folds, and MP3 (the only player to have me covered) goes all-in over the top. It mucks around to me.

So far at the final table, I've "stolen the blinds" twice preflop without showing. The player who pushed was at a different table from me until the final table, so I have more or less no read on him. First place got paid about like most tourneys, the prizes jumped way up as you lasted longer, but going from 9th place to 6th place only got you a couple hundred extra.

Do you call or fold?

RJ

[seke2]

I fold, but I'm weak/tight with AK. I don't think you'll see AQ/AJ enough for this to be a call.

If you fold here, you're still in solid shape and still 2nd in chips. If you double up here, you have the chip lead, but it doesn't give you a huge advantage with nearly a full table left.

I'm sure without a doubt that it's slightly +cEV to call this push. But I'm passing on this marginally +cEV spot and hoping to take advantage of the fact that I still have a comfortable stack to find spots later where I can be the aggressor. If you fold here, you only have to steal blinds twice to get back the 6000 you just lost.

I'm sure a lot of other people will advocate a push, but personally, I'd fold here and wait for a better spot.

[IHateKeithSmart]

w/o reads, I insta-call.

[wpr101]

I think it pays to gamble here and call despite the fact that your probably 50/50. Play for first. I don't see him playing aces or kings this fast.

[Mi_T_Sharp]

Sometimes, it is tough to put your tourney life on the line with AK when you fear a high pair. But, I am pretty sure this guy doesn't have AA or KK, because he most likely would not push allin. Knowing absolutely nothing about the Villian, it is probably safe to assume his range could include 77+, AJs+. I would bet he probably has a middle pair, hence the push. He doesn't want AK to call. I would call, take the probable coin flip, and feel good about it regardless of the results. I would be more scared of calling if he didn't push and raised a small amount, though.

[BigPoppa]

I would call:

1) With an aggressive chipleader 2 seats behind you, your ability to steal a decent number of pots is severely constrained.

2) Pokerroom payouts heavily favor Top 3, IIRC.

3) Calling and winning puts you in the driver's seat for the whole FT and almost locks in a good finish unless you run into some awful luck.

4) I don't think he's pushing $40k into a $9k pot if he wants a call, so I'd be surprised to see AA here. More likely, he has a lower PP or a good Ace. You're getting better than even odds on a coinflip.

[rms39]

Ok, well in case anyones interested, I called. I'm glad to see most of you guys backed up my play. I felt like I had to go for the win and was at worst a 50-50, after all, I didn't think he'd push all in with KK or AA when he'd want a caller.

In case you're wondering, he actually had KK and I busted in 9th. Could have mucked and probably guaranteed myself a top 5 and a little more money. My friend insists that he would muck that every time. Just wanted to hear some feedback.

RJ

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold, but I'm weak/tight with AK. I don't think you'll see AQ/AJ enough for this to be a call.

If you fold here, you're still in solid shape and still 2nd in chips. If you double up here, you have the chip lead, but it doesn't give you a huge advantage with nearly a full table left.

I'm sure without a doubt that it's slightly +cEV to call this push. But I'm passing on this marginally +cEV spot and hoping to take advantage of the fact that I still have a comfortable stack to find spots later where I can be the aggressor. If you fold here, you only have to steal blinds twice to get back the 6000 you just lost.

I'm sure a lot of other people will advocate a push, but personally, I'd fold here and wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I have walked that line before, I really think this spot calls for the call. Normally, I'm not instantly calling an over-bet AI with A high, but in this case, his bet screams LAG/pp/image build for the FT. Also and more importantly, his seating will make blind stealing much more difficult & he has a clear field to steal at will. If the seats were reversed, I'd strongly consider laying AK down, but not here.

[seke2]

I just don't like racing for what I don't think would be a guaranteed late money finish. Sure, you double up to 80, but it doesn't put you miles ahead of the field, and if you double up 1 of the 25kish stacks once, you're now barely even the chipleader.

Seating is a good point...but for me, I don't see this as an image building move by the other big stack. I see this as the big stack making a bet that shows he's got a hand that HE is willing to risk basically busting on, since he's pushing into a raise from the only person that can really hurt him. I don't see him doing that with many marginal hands. My most likely range on him is JJ+/AK, slight chance of 88-TT, slighter chance of AQ. I'd need to believe I was going to see a hand I was dominating a fair percentage of the time in order to call this, and I don't think there's much chance of that at all.

But like I said, I'm weak/tight with AK.