What can we expect from Robinson Cano in 2007?

[Matt Williams]

This is really the first season that I will be following baseball based on Baseball Prospectus. I noticed that Cano had an OBP of .365, Slugging % of .525 but a batting ave. of .342 last year.

I would assume his BA would drop down to about .300-.315, but what about his OPB and Slugging %? Will they improve or decline? What do you guys think?

[Scary_Tiger]

I'd expect his OBP to stay around .2-.25 above his BA.

I expect a .310/.335/.480 type of year.

[Green Kool Aid]

How does Cano rate defensively?

How much less valuable is 2b than say, SS?

[suppasonic]

Well it probably will drop some, as Cano isn't exactly the most patient hitter, but I could be wrong, as it is second full year. The same thing with Freddy Sanchez. I wouldn't be surprised if Cano batted .340 or .300 next year.

His BA/BIP was pretty high last year, so that should recede and drop his average by at least .20 points.

[moorobot]

A lot of good insights from Sabermetrics illuminate this issue. Here are a couple:

1. Batting Average from year to year is weakly correlated compared to walks and isolated power; put differently, a person's Batting Average one year isn't a great predictor of his BA the next.

2. Because his BA was much better in 06 than in 05 or 04, a good projection model will have his BA. pegged at a lower level than his 06.

On the other hand, his 06 walks/PA and Isolated slugging (ISO; Slug%-BA) were only slightly better than previous years, and those improvements are to be expected at his age.

Put these things together, and your projected BA. is probably a good guess, but he could hit .350 or .270 because of the variance in BA. His ISO and walks/PA will probably continue to improve slightly.

I would guess something like .310/.340/.500 for him, excellent #'s for a 2b.

[gehrig]

does anyone have any thoughts on PrOPS? that has cano as the luckiest hitter in baseball last year by a pretty big margin

[moorobot]

[ QUOTE ]

How does Cano rate defensively?

How much less valuable is 2b than say, SS?

[/ QUOTE ] Cano is generally rated as close to average at second by defensive metrics, although different systems have him rated differently, as is often the case.

I think an average 2b is only a couple runs less valuable than an average SS over 150 games...in any case, the gap between 2b and corner outfielder is bigger than the one between 2b and ss.

[sublime]

pecota really likes robbie over the next 5+.

anyways, here is their projection from him next year:

.308/.349/.478

they have him as a + fielder, but their fielding metric isnt well respected afaik.

[Thremp]

Doesn't Cano have a 10-20% of finishing his career as HoF by anyone's projections?

[Karak567]

Joe Torre and Don Mattingly seem to think he has the capability to hit 30 HR.

Not that they said they think he will, but they think he is strong enough and has enough bat speed to do it, even if it is a long shot.

I'm pretty sure I heard them say this in a post-game interview once.

Cano is one of my favorite players to watch. I hope he just gets better and better.