I wanna challenge on FT

skreemer7 · #1 05-18-2007, 11:55 AM

Alright, I've finally broken and opened a FT account, and what a better way to start this than by giving the old gigabet challenge a go. Anyone have a suggestion for a reasonable format for my challenge? Structuring it like the old challenge seems like doom. Thanks.

DevinLake · #2 05-18-2007, 12:45 PM

you could try something related to k-rag's post on the Kelly formula. Although you would have to guess your ROI.

skreemer7 · #3 05-18-2007, 06:28 PM

Never heard of the Kelly formula. Do you know of a comprehensive source of info on this?

citanul · #4 05-18-2007, 06:53 PM

skreemer,

i dno, google usually has good answers for stuff like this. i think it's usually called kelly criterion though.

look for k-rag's post to learn a bit, and look on google.

k-rag · #5 05-18-2007, 08:39 PM

i need to do the formulas in the post since i screwed them up. will do that in a minute.

anyway, skreemer, i am doing a gigabet challenge right now with 20-buyins going 100 games at each of 11s, 22s, 33s, 44s, 71s, 109s. this is to get a very very rough idea of rois through the upper levels. pm me if you want details. i am at the 33s right now.

at 10% itm, 44% roi, full kelly is like 14-15 buy-ins so a 20-buy in gigabet challenge is pretty aggressive. if the ROI drops to like 7-5% you'll likely go busto, or (more likely) in "hover" move floating up and down levels.

skreemer7 · #6 05-23-2007, 11:21 PM

How does this work if I want to multitable these? If I play a round of 15 and go busto in 4 right away, wouldn't that change the buyin of my next investment (i.e. the rest of the 10 tables that I have already started)?

Amerzel · #7 05-24-2007, 09:32 PM

The original link mentioned in the thread is located here. Very interesting read. I'm interested in how well you are progressing with it.

k-rag · #8 05-25-2007, 06:38 PM

hi skreemer, sent pm.

mutlitabling and associated risks such as short term tilt, disconn of an entire set, etc. is a drawback that along with inaccurate roi measurements prevents practical use of full kelly when running more than say 6-8 tables.

also running full kelly is really risky without a huge sample size, since the ROI will swing a bunch until you have like 2000+ samples.

that said: 20-buyins is pretty close to full kelly for something like 7% ROI, 45% ITM.

from the other thread:
f* = ROI * ITM / (ROI + 1 - ITM)

using the "sustainable figures" in the STT FAQ for todays games, a 20-buyin, 100-game-per-level gigabet challenge would be pretty aggressive.

not to hijack, but just wanted to share how this is going for me... on the gigabet challenge i'm doing i'm halfway through the 44s and after a horrendous 12 buy-in downswing in a span of the last 16 games at the 44s now have about 25 buy-ins for the 44s. so it's not looking too good for the 71s and 109s. fortunately, rakeback has paid the original stake already so it would be mostly a matter of time investment if the stake goes busto.

hopefully your quest is going better, skreemer. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] let us know how it's going!

skreemer7 · #9 05-28-2007, 09:14 PM

thanks for the info k-rag. as for my progress, i started with $400 and played rounds of 12 tables with 33's and 22's mixed. Got the account up to about $950 right now by doing that. As for roi estimations, i've played 11k+ games so I have a good judge of what my abilities are. I'd really like to be playing 12 tables while i'm doing this. Perhaps a 25-buyin 100games/level gigabet would be good for this purpose? Considering that I want to be aggressive, but I don't want to just pull a slot machine, does this seem like a reasonable challenge?