FTOP Question: What should you do here?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

For whatever reason, it is three-handed on fifth street and the hands are thus:

Seat 1: (K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 2: (J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 8: (T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2311434
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ac 4d 4s kc qc - tc th 5s 6c 2c - 8d 8c jd 5c 3c
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4s Ac Kc Qc 4d 207695 41.54 292305 58.46 0 0.00 0.415
5s Tc 6c 2c Th 180217 36.04 319783 63.96 0 0.00 0.360
8c 5c 3c Jd 8d 112088 22.42 387912 77.58 0 0.00 0.224

It was limped on third. Seat 1 bet fourth and got two callers. On fifth, Seat 1 checks and Seat 2 bets.

You are Seat 8 and limped on third with no other clubs showing, then called a bet with a pair of tens against a player who auto-bets with any ace on fourth in this spot.

If you raise fifth, Seat 1 will definitely call two bets cold, then feel obligated to call on sixth unless someone has a very scary board. Seat 2 will definitely call a raise and will most likely go to the river.

If you call on fifth, you don't know if Seat 2 will bet again, but you believe he will probably call until the river unless someone makes a big open pair or is forced to call two bets cold unimproved. You also are unsure how Seat 1 will act on sixth, but suspect he will always call one bet unless someone pairs their door card and fold unimproved if faced with calling two bets cold.

You know everyone's hands on fifth street, but will magically forget them on sixth street, remembering only a read that no one has a huge hand. What is the best play?

[davebwell]

I would fold. A raise won't get you heads up under your assumptions and your pot equity is less than 1/3.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. A raise won't get you heads up under your assumptions and your pot equity is less than 1/3.

[/ QUOTE ]

I swapped the lines in the twodimes stuff, so your equity is actually slightly more than 1/3.

[Andy B]

Since a raise won't knock anyone out, I recommend that you call and hit.

[davebwell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. A raise won't get you heads up under your assumptions and your pot equity is less than 1/3.

[/ QUOTE ]

I swapped the lines in the twodimes stuff, so your equity is actually slightly more than 1/3.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given time to think about it, I think I may still fold here because I don't want to face a raise by seat 8 on an even money proposition. (although I am not as decisive now as I was before you pointed out that the hand percentages were reversed)

However, at the table, in the heat of the moment, I am sure I would call.