Possible short-term play: Western Union (WU)?

[Shoe]

Do you guys think Western Union will exceed expectations this quarter? The reason I ask is because I have seen Western Union mentioned in a few other threads as a way to fund/receive money to/from various sites since the whole Neteller fiasco.

Now, I am not sure how they are doing this (legally) or how long it will last, but could they have a big enough impact from online gambling transactions to boost their bottom line? I am thinking this would be a short-term (<3 months or until the next time they report earnings) play. What do you guys think?

[Mondogarage]

I have no idea whether or not WU will exceed expectations this quarter or not. However, bear in mind their overall revenue this quarter is expected to fall between $1.13B and $1.2B. That's billon. Even if all the US players immediately used WU to remove all their mobnies off all the sites, I can't imagine WU fees to add appreciably to that amount. A WAG (wild ass guess) would be somewhere around $10m or so, max. Or, less than 1% of the current anticipated revenue.

Otherwise, I don't known enough about WU to hazard an opinion about its value as an investment, generally.

[Soya]

I hold a large position in WU, so I follow it pretty closely. It is very difficult to predict quarter by quarter, but there may be a little pop due to the neteller. The reason, however, will be people using WU to lay money on the superbowl rather than poker players cashing in or out. Still mondo makes a good point about scale and, in any event, I think betting on a single earnings surprise is a bit of a fool's errand (I've been that fool).