My Golden Globes bets

[sirio11]

From the last post in my blog

These are the bets I've made so far for the Golden Globes:

BEST DRAMATIC ACTRESS -WINNER HELEN MIRREN, "THE QUEEN" (-585) I bet 1170 to win 200

BEST DRAMATIC ACTOR -WINNER FOREST WHITAKER, "THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND" (-235) I bet 470 to win 200

SUPPORTING DRAMATIC ACTRESS -WINNER JENNIFER HUDSON, "DREAMGIRLS" (-300) I bet 600 to win 200


BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL -WINNER SACHA BARON COHEN, "BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS " (-415) I bet 160 to win 38

FOREIGN LANGUAGE PICTURE -WINNER "PAN’S LABYRINTH" (MEXICO) +1400 I bet 200 to win 2800

I have some bets also for DREAMGIRLS to best picture musical/comedy; right now Bodog has a great line 7/8, probably a mistake, since the lines at other sites have it at arount -600, but for some reason Bodog loves Borat, I think you should bet and enjoy the free $50.

I made almost all my bets last month and I think I got great lines, with the exception of Pan's Labyrinth, the rest of my bets are almost a lock (or so I think). For example, I got Helen Mirren at -585 and right now is at -1900, Forrest at -235, now at -335, Hudson at -300, now at -600, Sasha at -415, now at -510; all these bets are a lock, barring some terrible surprise. The only underdog I took was Pan's Labyrinth, but at +1400 it's a steal, the favorite in that category is Letters from Iwo Jima (-300) and while I agree Letters is the front runner, no way Pan's is at +1400; Pan's is a wonderful movie, one of the best in this decade, if you haven't seen it, you're missing a masterpiece, go now !!; but of course I'm not betting because I like it, It has won the most Foreign Language awards to date, and Letters is losing steam, while Pan's is getting excellent reviews everywhere; the only problem it could be maybe they released Pan's a little too late to gain enough steam for the globes (next Monday January 15), but I hope it will. BTW, the +1400 line is still up at CRIS, Bodog has it at +500.

What do you think of these bets?

Probably I'll make some more Golden Globes bets between today and Monday, but I need to do some analysis of the lines and some analysis of Globes history versus critics awards to find the best value.

[03 Z4]

Nice early bet at good pricing.

Besides lock of Mirren for Best Actress, yes Mirren is a lock, I like Cohen for Best Comedy Actor w/o rediculous odds.

First look at the alternative...
Depp - He's a fav of Golden Globes, for nomination that is. This will be his 4th str yr w/ nomination Charlie Chocolate, Neverland, Pirates 1. He got this yr for Pirates 2, given he didn't win for 1, why would he win for a lesser sequel. My guess is living in Europe endear to the foreign press, but not enough for a win here.
Eckhart - Good movie but Borat is better movie and absolutely no buzz what so ever.
Ferrell - Went-of-box acting w/ role but nothing special, some can say he was better in Talladega. Movie was ave.
Ejiofor - Enough said.

Now back to Cohen - He got 2 nom, this and Best Movie. Dreamgirls will win that one, remember reception it got in Cannes when it showed 30 min of film, most of press there was foreign. They will want to award him w/ at least 1 award for making one of best comedy in a long time. A comedy that makes fun of good old USA, once again the foreign press comes into play. Then there's the anticipation for his thank-you speech, expect this to be hitelite of nite and therefore good press for Golden Globes, I don't think there's been a public display of him as himself, this will be a first.

So with heavy favorite coming in and no alternative, he won't lose. BetCris has him at -500.

[sirio11]

I agree with your analysis, I think Cohen is a lock, I bet some more on him.
I also bet some money on Babel for Best Picture Drama, Cris has it (this morning) at +585, and I think it's a very good price, the favorite is The Departed, but not by much, some critics even say Babel is a slight favorite and Babel has momentum and it's the kind of movie the foreign press loves; hell, you can even bet The Departed at -190 and Babel and win some money, barring some big upset by The Queen.

[stereoman]

Wow, I tell you what you I'm surprised Bodog allowed you to bet so much on these props.

Yep Babel and Pan's Labyrinth are shots in the dark but if the HFPA are pounding them for an upset then good times lay ahead.

[domer2]

My plays:

-Babel for Best Picture (extreme value, the books have this priced incorrectly)
-Pan's Labyrinth for Best Foreign Language film (got this at +1400 at Cris and +1300 at BetUS)
-Martin Scorsese for Director - this is his year, don't be afraid to bet high
-Helen Mirren for Actress - barring death, she will win this

I'd put Best Picture Drama at something like this:

Departed -110
Babel +140
The Queen +600
Little Children/Bobby +5000

[domer2]

I don't think Dreamgirl is a free $50, nor do I think Borat has any shot at the BP Comedy/Musical.

Little Miss Sunshine could be the surpise of the night. Not enough value for me to bet, but enough for me to stay away from laying odds on Dreamgirls.

Globes love Musicals though, so Dreamgirls is definitely the heavy favorite.

[03 Z4]

I highly recommend Little Miss Sunshine. That scene w/ her doing the dance at the end is absolutely hilarious. Last time I laughed so hard was the zipper scene from Something About Mary.

The writing was just phenomenal.

[03 Z4]

My play, wager/win amount/odds ...

Cohen - 5740/1130/-510

Streep - 5060/900/-560

Mirren - 1750/250/-700

Dreamgirls (Best Musical) - 66/55/-110

Pan's Labyrinth - 254/2461/+970 (Straight up bet)

Pan's Laby - 250/3250/+1300 and Iwo Jima - 788/250/-315. Figure one of this is going to win Best Foreign so I'm playing this as free roll on Iwo and hoping PN pull last minute upset, which it has great chance of doing. Check out critics review for PN on Rotten Tomatoes.

Murphy - 200/400/+200, Nicholson - 100/475/+475, Pitt - 100/700/+700 = One of these 3 should win Best Supporting (unless Wahlberg pull a Marisa Tomei-style upset). If so, I win from 175-400. Just don't see people voting for MW over JN given they're in same movie and JN has much bigger role and is much bigger star. I equate any buzz for MW same as that for Matt Dillon from Crash last yr. Lose at end to star power, Clooney.

Whitaker - 857/350, DiCaprio (Departed) - 150/1050. This category puzzled me. Made FW bet first but just thought they might do something crazy and give it to LD so I hedged at the end. O'toole was in running w/ FW but if FW loses, it'll probably be to LD.

The Best Foreign bet (tailing OP) can really make my nite, and same for most on here I figure.

[Homer]

I'm getting to this really late, looks like I missed most of the value. I did just pick up Babel at +300 (at Carib, now +240), is that at least a small +ev bet? I assume so, based on what Pin and other books have.

[Homer]

Wow, do I wish I grabbed Babel yesterday at +800 now.