100plo good or bad?

[holdme]

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $35
UTG+1: $151.10
CO: $98
Button: $105.50
Hero: $174.65
BB: $114.45

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4, 4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $4</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $16</font>, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($40, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $40</font>

Is flop call stupid? Villain is a 44/0. His raise probably means "I have a set!" Is that turn bet good or bad?

[JackInDaCrak]

If your read says that he has a set, then why would you essentially commit the rest of your stack with only NFD + unclean inside broadway draw?

You have to call here on the turn, but probably not on the flop, unless you think this guy is going to pay you off on a spade.

[TheRempel]

It looks like exactly what it is; a bluff.

If you had actually hit that straight you probably would have checkraised, right?

The second part of the problem is that there is not really enough money left behind after you pot the turn to effectively bluff the river. Villain is going to have $50 left to call in a $170 pot and in my experience no 44/0 player is ever folding a set here or on the river.

Generally my line against this type of player (assuming he is capable of folding the river for a bigger bet in a smaller pot) would be to bet $20-$25 on the turn which will make the pot $80 - $90 and give you $65 in bluff money left on the river. Or you could just check-fold since you have at most 11 outs against a set on the turn.

[swope]

flop call is fine, that turn bet is questionable imo. i think it costs you money more often than not in the long run.

[GAL]

C/F that turn

[grizy]

Turn bet is awful 44/0 will almost definitely call you with anything... the only thing you can pray for is something like your AK77... with a lower flush draw. Check fold that or go with Rempel's play.

[holdme]

Okay, he shoved. Fold or call?

[JackInDaCrak]

at this point you have to call. $58 or so into a $170 pot, you're getting 3:1 just about.

With your 11 outs (assuming the Qd loses), of 44 unseen cards, you're 33:11 to hit, or 3:1.

If he does have a set, you have only 9 outs since 2s and Ts fill him out, so you're 35:9 or just better than 4:1.

Personally I don't like folding here while you're definitely live, even if it is a marginally -equity situation. You made your bed with that turn bet, now lay in it.

[sondring]

I'll either lead @ that flop, or check fold it. Cold calling a bet and a raise OOP seems like a huge leak, no?

[grizy]

fold, there is very significant chance he actually betted with a straight draw... and you're drawing to a chop with some of your outs.