2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?

jimmyhat1000 · #1 01-10-2007, 12:59 PM

Villian is 28.2/23.3/4.5 over 100 or so hands. We dont really have much history and he doesn't seem like a fish. But when i bet this river what am i trying to get to call? An overpair, something like 66 or 88? Do i try to make it look like a bluff and shove? Thanks

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($409.10)
UTG ($454.40)
MP ($154.30)
Hero ($524)
SB ($288.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises to $16, 1 fold, Hero calls $16, SB (poster) calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $40, SB folds, UTG calls $40.

Turn: ($132) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $65, UTG calls $65.

River: ($262) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ?

RepulseMonkey · #2 01-10-2007, 01:04 PM

looks like a weak overpair T's or J's. Bet more on turn. As played 180-200 ?

jimmyhat1000 · #3 01-10-2007, 01:11 PM

yeah thats what i thought but his line is really weird, check call, check call, check? I thought a 28/24/4 would be more aggros with an overpair eg bet flop bet turn etc. Thats why i thought it might be something like 88 trying to get to showdown, i obv wasn't thinking of checking but i just couldnt figure out what he had/how much to bet accordingly. The only other extremely remote possibility was some weird AK/AQdd hand that check called the flop and turned a diamond draw, but obv thats a minute part of his range.

Also, only bet 1/2 pot on turn to get random A5/A3, gutshot and overcard hands to call a bet, as the only river i really dont like is a 9, and i want him to think he may win of an Ace is he has one of those hands.

callme · #4 01-10-2007, 02:14 PM

No way thats TT++ - he would raise for sure in some spot, his holding really looks weak (middle pair hand) - if you try to milk him for too much on the river you´ll most likely lose him.

Praetor · #5 01-10-2007, 02:16 PM

id go $150

jimmyhat1000 · #6 01-10-2007, 03:45 PM

well this is what happened anyway

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($409.10)
UTG ($454.40)
MP ($154.30)
Hero ($524)
SB ($288.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises to $16, 1 fold, Hero calls $16, SB (poster) calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $40, SB folds, UTG calls $40.

Turn: ($132) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $65, UTG calls $65.

River: ($262) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $110, UTG calls $110.

Final Pot: $482

Results in white below: 
UTG has Qh Qc (two pair, queens and twos).
Hero has 4s 4h (full house, fours full of twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $482. 

If i had known what he had would have obv bet more on the turn(like $90-$110) and prob 3/4 pot/shoved the river, just seemed really weird for him to play his hand this way. I was actually thinking he had 55-88 and was betting to try get value from them, although i spose on river he either likes his hand or doesn't (meaning hes calling any bet, including shove, or hes c/folding) so shoving i guess is the EV+ move?

Cheers

luckychewy · #7 01-10-2007, 03:49 PM

it doesn't look like his hand is nearly as strong as it was and i think most of the hands he is telegraphing(which i also believe he will usually have) will fold to a standard river bet here. in general though i would bet 100 on the turn and shove the river. but given that you so vastly underbet the turn i think the river size is fine.