PLO50 - dazed and confused

EvanJC · #1 01-09-2007, 07:46 AM

i once read/heard/made up someone saying it's never standard to get all in in omaha w/out the nuts. but surely this is standard, right? comments on all streets are welcome - im just learning here. no significant reads on villian

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $27
UTG+1: $49.30
Hero: $49.25
Button: $23.05
SB: $41.20
BB: $19.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.25, 3 players)
SB bets $5.25, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15.75, 2 players)
SB bets $15.75, Hero raises all-in $42.25, SB calls all-in $18.45.
Uncalled bets: $8.05 returned to Hero.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($84.15, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $84.15)

Results:
Final pot: $84.15

god i bet this forum gets sick of hearing about how people are just learning lol

Jefferson · #2 01-09-2007, 07:54 AM

People dont bluff like that in small stakes. He has the str8, and after that turn you are a big dog. If the turn would have brought you a flush draw, it would maybe have been a call for the 15 bucks.

EvanJC · #3 01-09-2007, 08:19 AM

so at small stakes i should be folding everything but the nuts? that don't seem right =D

can't villian have a lower set here?

Jefferson · #4 01-09-2007, 08:29 AM

No. flop call is fine. turn call would be bad, imo.
To my experience small stakes guys dont bet 2nd barrels like that if they are on draws, especially OOP. He has the str8, and you made a bad all-in.

FabledHero · #5 01-09-2007, 10:21 AM

Terrible flop play. Do yourself a favor and never slowlpay in PLO again.

This flop is really draw heavy, he can easily have a HUGE wrap here, 3456, 789T etc, which means almost any card you see is gonna be bad. Don't give him basically a free card, charge him and hope a harmless card like AKQ267 falls then jam turn again.

Silent A · #6 01-09-2007, 10:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Terrible flop play. Do yourself a favor and never slowlpay in PLO again.

This flop is really draw heavy, he can easily have a HUGE wrap here, 3456, 789T etc, which means almost any card you see is gonna be bad. Don't give him basically a free card, charge him and hope a harmless card like AKQ267 falls then jam turn again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check it again. The flop already has a straight available (89xx for the Ten high straight).

guilt_trip · #7 01-09-2007, 11:57 AM

Depends on reads. Against some donks I'd push but against most you have to fold here. 9 times out of 10 I'd fold to the obvious straight

And yes you can get pretty far with the nut peddling appraoch in SSPLO

FabledHero · #8 01-09-2007, 12:36 PM

eh ya i should stop posting on here, i tend to skim through things too quickly, didn't even notice a straight hit.

call flop, turn fold if the villain is pretty tight, b/c he'll have 89 everytime.

CrushinFelt · #9 01-09-2007, 12:58 PM

Call flop, fold turn, read the thread about beating these lower stakes.

And "i once read/heard/made up someone saying it's never standard to get all in in omaha w/out the nuts" is silly.

Silent A · #10 01-09-2007, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so at small stakes i should be folding everything but the nuts? that don't seem right =D

can't villian have a lower set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a question of "can he have a lower set" it's "does he have a lower set often enough for this to be a push"?

Let's assume the best case scenario: he has either a lower set and no redraws or a straight with none of your outs covered (this is pretty dubious, but it's your best case).

It will cost you $34.20 to push for a $84.15 pot. I'm pretty sure there's also supposed to be another $2 or so removed for the rake, but I'll ignore that for now.

Case 1: Villain has lower set. He has 1 out with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (1/40)*(-34.2) + (39/40)*(49.95) = +47.85

Case 2: Villain has straight. You have 10 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (30/40)*(-34.2) + (10/40)*(49.95) = -13.15

To break even, he needs to have a lower set 13.15/(13.15+47.85) = 0.215 of the time.

If we include the $2 rake, this number increases to 0.23 (not that big a deal).

However, let's give your villain his minimum statistical extra outs. If he has a set, he'll have a flush draw about one in five times at least and he'll usually have some kind of straight draw. A flush draw earns him an extra 7 outs and a straight draw another 3 to 8 (depending on whether or not he has a flush draw). let's say villain has, on average an extra 6 outs besides the quads. Also, let's say that when he has a straight, he probably also has one of your boat cards, leaving you with 9 outs. I'll also include the $2 rake.

Case 1: Villain has lower set. He has 7 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (7/40)*(-34.2) + (33/40)*(47.95) = +33.55

Case 2: Villain has straight. You have 9 outs with 40 cards remaining.

EV of push = (31/40)*(-34.2) + (9/40)*(47.95) = -15.70

To break even, he needs to have a lower set 15.7/(15.7+33.55) = 0.32 of the time.

Now consider this: There are 16 ways your opponent could have 89 and 12 ways he coud have 77 or 66. Also, a co-ordinated 89xx is more likely to call a pre-flop raise than a 66xx or 77xx. Further, SB's actions are perfectly compatable with a made straight (vulnerable or protected). Also, at these stakes villains are especially likely to have what they represent. Finally, this is probably not a scenario where a flopped straight is looking to check-raise.

To me this all adds up to villain having the straight more than often enough to justify a fold.

Your main problem is that you have absolutely no extra draws to go with your set.