Math class... I am the dumb student.

[daveT]

Okay, since I have finally admitted that I truly suck at this game, although I am very good at HE, I am determined to learn this the same way that I learned HE, with math.

Anyway, I would like to point out that good Omaha players seem to have an inherent atvantage over all the other players, because there really isn't anything that good out there, and there seems to be inaccuracies in all of the books. One that sticks out for me is Ray Zee's contention that you can play any A2 in a low-limit game, forgetting to add that you would need six or more players for one bet PF, flop, and turn to make this a break even play, and that is implying that I never get quartered, and always see a board that I can draw to low.

Anyway, on with the confusion!

1- I recently learned that in Omaha, a player needs to flop 17 outs to play break even against a set, implying that all the money gets in the middle, creating a race. Compare this to HE, witch you only need 9 outs to break even in a race.

Is this because the nub is smaller, and we now have a higher chance of pairing the board?

2- Gus Hansen article. I am not entirely sure of the exact hands, but they are something like this.

1- A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2- A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3- K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4- 3468 suits probably don't matter.

So, can we all guess witch one is the favorite? The fact that I am asking makes the answer obvious, as hand #4 has a 34% equity. Is it correct to play this hand because the deck is richer in low cards, and it is more likely to hit two pair?

3- There is an interesting thinking, derived from game theory, that sometimes the best you can do is take the least worst of it. Not suggesting that you will actually profit, but will take the least amount of loss by certain plays. I think that Ray Zee's suggestion of playing any A2 exemplifies this concept if you are to continue after the flop. How important of a role does this take in Omaha, where you are constantly stuck in messy post-flop situations?

4- And to get back to basics, when I am attempting to calculate my outs, what is the best procedure here? How much should I take in consideration my opponents possibilities when I am counting, if I am drawing to a flush and I know my opponents are too? Is it really viable to include all 9 "outs" at any time? When I am drawing to low and I belive I am going to get quartered (my opponent will only play A2), how much equity to I really have to continue drawing?

I guess this is a good start, I have plenty more questions, but I don't want to get too arcane right now.

[adenosine]

I can only talk about hand 2. It is an equity favorite, mainly because all the good high cards are in the hands, and will most likely win the low if one comes. The two pair factor is pretty nonexistant.

However, if you actually try to PLAY that hand, it's nearly impossible. You never know where you are in the hand. You can't bet; you can't be aggressive, unless you get a miracle flop like 257 rainbow. You make too many of the wrong end of straights and have a very junky low.

[Central Limit]

Hand 4 is the best hand for two reasons:

1) It contains the best low draw, 34.
2) It contains the livest cards and so has an easier time making two pairs and trips.

While the other hands leave the deck richer in low cards, they also contain ALL the aces. So hand 4 must make a low that does not contain an ace. I can't tell you intuitively whether the other hands help or hinder hand 4s low chances.

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 4 is the best hand for two reasons:

1) It contains the best low draw, 34.
2) It contains the livest cards and so has an easier time making two pairs and trips.

While the other hands leave the deck richer in low cards, they also contain ALL the aces. So hand 4 must make a low that does not contain an ace. I can't tell you intuitively whether the other hands help or hinder hand 4s low chances.

[/ QUOTE ]Hand 4 is NOT the best hand in general, however. Hand 4 is around 47/53 against random cards, while hand 1 is around 65/35.

Here's another quiz:
Which hand is the best hand here?
1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
4) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
5) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
6) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
7) T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

HAND 7!!! HOW INSIGHTFUL!

[Split Suit]

1.) im not 100% sure, ask Buzz

2.) if all the hands were flipped over b4 u got to make ur decision, u wud call in a heart beat. but, because thats now this game will ever b played, that hand belongs in the muck. and it is ahead EE wise because deck is rich in low cards and will hit us much harder more of the time

3.) this is an economic theory that i love, "minimizing loss is the same as maximizing value". of course in this game, or any other poker game, we dont suggest taking the worst of it at anytime. however, we often dont because the pot odds are actually lettin us get our money in correct. so if ur askin if i think gettin ur money in behind is a smart idea, obv id have to say no if the pot odds dont allow for it.

however, if ur asking if there are times to minimize loss, then of course there are. times when u have 66xx on a 4s 6s Kd board. in a 3way+ pot u will do some pot limiting to minimize loss when we are behind, especially when OOP. but because im not 100% sure what ur askin in OP, i wont go on any further unless this is the correct subject.

4.) if u kno an opponent has A2, and u are in a 4 or less way pot, and u have no real viable draw to the 3/4, i wud suggest dumping the hand. u need 5+ ppl in the pot to break profit on a 1/4. in reguards to flushes, i generally dont acct for all my outs, but instead substitute that with massive IO from idiots that cant fold 2nd best flushes. hence why we draw to nut flushes in multiway pots.

hope this helps, and feel free to correct me if im wrong.

[Dire]

Outs are not really the same as in holdem. Imagine you have something like 34KQ and the flop comes 26J. You could say you have 4 outs to the nut low, 4 outs to the nut high and even some backdoor nut straight outs - but you should still almost always fold. You're drawing to half both ways and even if you do hit your high you have no real redraws. And unlike holdem, backdoor flushes and the board pairing will both often kill your high. Which is also the reason playing tight is a good thing. 34KQ won't be a huge dog to hardly any hands, but you won't often have any clue where you stand with it - and you'll often find yourself in very tough situations as you would on this flop.

[You're No Daisy]

I apologize in advance for the long-winded response, but I think it merits one. The feasibility of playing the four hands you presented fall into the category of, "it depends." Actually, math is only a small part of what your thought process should be when attempting to play these hands. Your position at the table and the image of your opponents is what should come into play here. If your opponents only play low cards, the math is on your side since mostly high cards will be left in the deck and that bodes well for hands 1, 2, and 3.

1- A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hand 1 depends on what position you're in at the table. In early position you should be throwing this away because the dangling 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will cost you money. Instead, if the 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] was replaced by a K or Q of spades, you might consider raising from any position since most players tend to play low cards...you're hoping all high cards hit the flop to make top set, a flush draw (with high cards), or a broadway straight. In the cutoff or on the button it's worth a call if there are several limpers in front of you. Again, you're hoping for a flop of all high cards with a nut flush draw or broadway straight, etc.. If you call with this hand in late position you really need to evaluate the flop to see if it fits your hand. It's easy to let go of if all low cards hit on the flop. A good flop for hand one would be:

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a miracle flop)

I think you get the picture here.

2- A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3- K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hands 2 and 3 are best played in late position, but to play in early position, you want to raise (in my opinion) to play against one or two opponents who most likely have low cards. In theory, the deck should be stocked with high cards.

4- 3468 suits probably don't matter.
Forget about the math. Hand 4 is plain aweful. I don't want to get into the miracle flop that would have to occur in order to make this hand playable. The only time you should play this hand is if you're in the BB and can check to get a free look at the flop.

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
1- I recently learned that in Omaha, a player needs to flop 17 outs to play break even against a set, implying that all the money gets in the middle, creating a race. Compare this to HE, witch you only need 9 outs to break even in a race.

Is this because the nub is smaller, and we now have a higher chance of pairing the board?


[/ QUOTE ]

9 outs in HE is about a 3-1 dog vs a set and 2-1 vs top pair. The size of the nub makes no difference in either case unless you know the cards that are folded.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I would like to point out that good Omaha players seem to have an inherent atvantage over all the other players, because there really isn't anything that good out there, and there seems to be inaccuracies in all of the books. One that sticks out for me is Ray Zee's contention that you can play any A2 in a low-limit game, forgetting to add that you would need six or more players for one bet PF, flop, and turn to make this a break even play, and that is implying that I never get quartered, and always see a board that I can draw to low.

[/ QUOTE ]

I havent done the math, but this looks like this could only be true if the best you could do is 1/2 the pot. Even A229 or some other trashy low hand has a chance at making trip 9's or a wheel to scoop the pot.

[Fiasco]

[ QUOTE ]
2- Gus Hansen article. I am not entirely sure of the exact hands, but they are something like this.

1- A A T 6
2- A A Q T
3- K Q J J
4- 3468 suits probably don't matter.

So, can we all guess witch one is the favorite? The fact that I am asking makes the answer obvious, as hand #4 has a 34% equity. Is it correct to play this hand because the deck is richer in low cards, and it is more likely to hit two pair?

[/ QUOTE ] I ran the numbers on this and as Id assumed, it is incorrect. Hand #1 is is 37.6% and hand #4 is 30.3% that is if were talking about om8. I assumed that Gus' article was actually about PLO (where people love making these comparisons about rundown hands). In PLO hand #4 IS a 6% favorite over hand #1. All of this is irrelevant as you dont end up all in preflop in LO8 or PLO8 NEARLY as often as you do in PLO.

[ QUOTE ]
One that sticks out for me is Ray Zee's contention that you can play any A2 in a low-limit game, forgetting to add that you would need six or more players for one bet PF, flop, and turn to make this a break even play, and that is implying that I never get quartered, and always see a board that I can draw to low.

[/ QUOTE ] This sounds wrong, if there are six players calling a bet on the flop turn and river, and you make your low and dont get quartered, then you just earned 4 big bets. Please explain your reasoning.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that Ray Zee's suggestion of playing any A2 exemplifies this concept if you are to continue after the flop. How important of a role does this take in Omaha, where you are constantly stuck in messy post-flop situations?

[/ QUOTE ] Im not entirely sure what youre talking about. If youre asking how often you should fold A2 when you think that you are drawing to only 1/4, the answer is very infrequently. Its very easy to just assume that your opponents are on A2 all the time, but it takes an incredibly strong read + a ton of jamming to make it a good idea to toss the best low or best low draw.

[ QUOTE ]
4- And to get back to basics, when I am attempting to calculate my outs, what is the best procedure here? How much should I take in consideration my opponents possibilities when I am counting, if I am drawing to a flush and I know my opponents are too? Is it really viable to include all 9 "outs" at any time? When I am drawing to low and I belive I am going to get quartered (my opponent will only play A2), how much equity to I really have to continue drawing?

[/ QUOTE ] I think I remember reading in Zee's book that you often have 10% less equity than you would think you do because of all of the backdoor draws, counterfeiting outs, and quartering possibilities. This sounds like a pretty good rule of thumb.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
1- I recently learned that in Omaha, a player needs to flop 17 outs to play break even against a set, implying that all the money gets in the middle, creating a race. Compare this to HE, witch you only need 9 outs to break even in a race.

[/ QUOTE ]Dave - I’m not sure what you’re talking about. Where did you get the idea you need 17 outs to break even against a player with a flopped set? Where ever you got the idea, it doesn’t sound right - but maybe we’re taking it out of context. It doen’t even sound right for Omaha-straight-high-only. This is the Omaha-8 forum. Outs are complicated because of the split pot nature of the game.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this because the nub is smaller, and we now have a higher chance of pairing the board?

[/ QUOTE ]No. Whatever you mean by needing 17 outs doesn’t have much to do with the size of the nub influencing the probability of the board pairing.

Probability is figured on the basis of the information available to you. The probability of the board pairing after a flop without a pair, depends on how many cards are available to pair the board, from your point of view.

Case 1: Hero has 2234, flop is 234. Hero has flopped a set.
5 unseen cards pair the board plus 60 backdoor pair combos. 5*4/2+5*40+60 = 270 ways for board to pair.

Case 2: Hero has 2345, flop is 234, Hero has not flopped a set.
6 unseen cards pair the board plus 57 backdoor pair combos. 6*5/2+6*39+57 = 306 ways for board to pair.

Case 3: Hero has 2256, flop is 234. Hero has flopped a set.
7 unseen cards pair the board plus 54 backdoor pair combos. 7*6/2+7*38+54 = 341 ways for board to pair.

Case 4: Hero has 2567, flop is 234, Hero has not flopped a set.
8 unseen cards pair the board plus 51 backdoor pair combos. 8*7/2+8*37+51 = 375 ways for board to pair.

Case 5: Hero has 5678, flop is 234, Hero has not flopped a set.
9 unseen cards pair the board plus 48 backdoor pair combos. 9*8/2+9*36+48 = 408 ways for board to pair.

Those are all out of 990 possible two-card combos for the turn and river, from the point of view of a player in the game who has seen his own hand and the flop.

There is a greater chance of the board pairing when Hero (or anybody) has flopped a set than random. But Hero (or anybody) could not flop a set and there might be less of a chance of the board pairing than if Hero had flopped a set.

On a slightly different note, when Hero has a pair in his own hand, there’s a slightly greater chance than otherwise for the flop (or board) to be paired, but it doesn’t amount to much, roughly 67 to 66.

Buzz