NBA 1/3 - MEM and LAC / MIA thoughts

[MicroBob]

Kind of surprised the line isn't better for MEM and their whopping 7-25 record. Was really expecting to see more value with them in their first few games with their new coach.

But after covering +9 at HOU only losing by 2 there, MEM is now -4 at home against GS.

GS is only 4-11 on the road but they're still a pretty decent team.
They just won last night at OKC though so I think the back-to-back road games is the reason why the line isn't as great for MEM as I would have hoped.


MEM -3.5 didn't look so hot to me.


LAC was only -2 or -2.5 even an hour or two even WELL after it was announced that Pat Riley was taking a leave.
I put one unit on LAC -2.5.
Then I saw it available at -2 so grabbed another unit.

This seemed almost too easy to me.

Since then the line must have gone crazy. It's off-the-board on a couple of sites, and it's up to -5.5 at Pinny and might even still be on the rise.


Nice room for a middle in there if I wanted one. But I think I'm liking the value I'm getting with LAC at -2 even more.

[laserboy]

I've been betting the over on Memphis games since their coaching change, and I still like the over on the Warrior game at 213. They have put up a total of 214 and 220 in their two previous games against two slowpaced teams in the Raptors and Rockets. I think they can do the same against a very fast paced team in the Warriors.

It looks weird to be betting over 213 on a Grizzlies game, but I think the players have really taken to the uptempo approach and will continue to push the pace as long as Barone encourages it.

I don't see much value in the spread either. I do like the Clippers over the Heat though, with or without Riley, and got a bet in at -2.5. The Heat lineup is unimpressive to say the least without Wade.

[03 Z4]

Posey and Walker is out of Heat games tonite too. I had LA (-.5) for 1Q as I figure it will take them some time to get started w/o Wade/Walker/Posey.

[MicroBob]

LAC 110 - MIA 95

This one almost seemed TOO easy.

laserboy - completely agree on the MEM overs and I almost took this one too.
I decided to take MEM -3.5 for fun.

Over already made it:
GS 110 - MEM 109 with 8 mins left still.

This thing could finish in the 130's or even the 140's...
at which point I think the secret will be out and the overs should adjust.


We have tickets for the MEM/PHX game on MLK day, Jan 15.
The way MEM is running now this could be a REALLY fun game to watch.

[MicroBob]

Final:

MEM 144 - GS 135


Holy crap these guys are running.

MEM -3.5 worked out.
Wish I had taken the over too.

[llabb]

I agree Bob, the LAC-Mia game was almost too easy. The books often do not adjust enough for injuries imo. Yes, this sounds like square thinking, but the linesmaker seems to follow the basic mathematical formulae which set the original line in the first place, and then only adjust by a couple points. Those couple points (only 2 pts today) usually aren't enough to account for the difference, at least in games that I've bet.

Nice job with the Memphis Overs, laser and Bob. Almost joined you guys, but 213 just sounded high, and some cappers I respect were on the Under, so I laid off. Should continue to be value until the books adjust enough. Which could happen soon, though, after tonight's 144-135 game without even any OT!

Have fun at the Memphis/Phoenix game, Bob. Based on tonight's game results, that game could end up at 300 pts! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[laserboy]

Gotta get these guys on my fantasy league team ASAP! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[laserboy]

Agree completely. I noticed the same thing when Iverson went out for the Sixers and Pierce went out for the Celtics. These teams were (predictably) absolutely putrid without their do-it-all superstars (weren't that good even with them to begin with). The line did not move nearly enough to compensate for their losses.

I am going to look to keep fading Miami without Wade, New Orleans without Paul/Peja/West, Boston without Pierce, and Houston without Yao whenever the line looks favorable.

[llabb]

Great thought, laser. I'm normally pretty good in fantasy, but my performance this season has suffered greatly because I've been focusing on my capping and other things. The fantasy knowledge definitely helps cap the NBA though.

I just picked up Swift in one league, and Gay in another. Debating Stoudamire/Atkins in another, though perhaps not worth it, depending on who I would have to drop. D-Stoud with a huge game tonight, Atkins much better over the last couple games. If you were to pick up one, would it be D-Stoud just because he's starting now, and the incredible 16 asts?

After Gasol and Miller, do you agree that Gay, Swift, and Stoud/Atkins are the best options and decent WW pickups?

It's too bad that Eddie Jones has fallen off the cliff this year, and doesn't look like Warrick or Johnson will get as much PT under the new regime. On a related note, looking at the game tonight, GSW's Barnes has just been phenomenal lately.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]


I am going to look to keep fading Miami without Wade, New Orleans without Paul/Peja/West, Boston without Pierce, and Houston without Yao whenever the line looks favorable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree on 3 of those, but careful with Houston. T-Mac is back now, and there is not nearly as much value in a superstar being out, when the team still has a superstar. Several of the Houston games were calculated for a team line, where Yao was in and T-Mac out. With them reversing now, the lines should still be somewhat close, because it's been since early December that Houston has had at least one of their stars out, so there's not a ton of injury value in the lines here imo.