Playoff picture

[JaredL]

So it's extremely murky. I enjoy this [censored], and I'm sure some find it useful. So, despite the fact that at some point ESPN will likely put up this info, here's my playoff analysis starting in the NFC. It's going to be long. If you want to work through it all with me, that's fine. If you want cliff's notes (who needs what to happen), see the first reply.

No matter what happens tomorrow:
Seattle wins West, New Orleans the South, Chicago the North. Chicago has HFA.

If Dallas wins tomorrow they are NFC East champions. The standings for Wild Cards look like this:
Philadelphia 8-7, 7-4, 4-2
Carolina 7-8, 5-6, 4-1
Atlanta 7-8, 5-6, 3-3
Green Bay 7-8, 6-5, 4-1
St. Louis 7-8, 5-6, 2-4
NY Giants 7-8, 6-5, 3-2

If the Eagles beat Atlanta, then they will be through in 5th. In that case:
<ul type="square">[*] if the Giants and Packers win (the results of Carolina's and St. Louis' games don't matter) there could be up to a four-way 8-8 tie. Green Bay and the Giants go through the first round of the tiebreaker by having a 7-5 conference record. They didn't play each other so the relevant tiebreaker is common opponents (min 4 necesary). Their records would be a combined 1-4 against common opponents (Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Seattle. The tiebreaker would amazingly be strength of victory, which is the record of the teams a team has beaten. The Giants win this tiebreaker. Result: Eagles through 5th, Giants through 6th.
[*] if one of the Giants and Green Bay wins and the other loses, then the winner goes through in 6th.
[*] If both the Giants and Green Bay lose, and Carolina and St. Louis win then Carolina and St. Louis are tied at 8-8. Carolina beat St. Louis earlier in the season. If Carolina lose, St. Louis are in if they win. Result: Carolina goes through in sixth if they win, if they lose St. Louis are in with a win.
[*] If all of the teams mentioned above lose, A 7-9 TEAM WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. That team is the New York Giants. The reasoning is effectively the same as the scenario where they all win. First the division tiebreaker would happen (supposing the 6-9 teams won). The only team that would possibly lose this to another team is the Rams. In any case, the two teams that come out of the first round of tiebreakers are the Packers and Giants. The Giants would win based on Strength of victory.[/list]
If Atlanta beats the Eagles then it gets somewhat cofusing [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] :
<ul type="square">
[*] If the four other 7-8 teams win, then we will have a 6-way tie at 8-8. The first tiebreaker is between division teams. Carolina advances (to the next tiebreaker round that is) over Atlanta based on the better division record. Philadelphia and the Giants are equal in division record so it goes to common games. In common opponents they are equal except for Atlanta, against whom it is assumed the Eagles lost, so the Giants go through. So this tiebreaking round is between the Giants, Panthers, Packers, and Rams (sound familiar?). The Giants get the 5th spot, see above. The Eagles get the last spot because they have the same conference record as the Packers (thus knocking out Carolina and St. Louis), and beat them H2H. Result: Giants through 5th, Eagles 6th.
[*] ok, so that was fun. The same happens no matter what else happens so long as the Giants and either Carolina or Green Bay win. If the Packers lose and Carolina win, then the Giants will be in fifth due to beating Carolina (if Rams lose) or having the best conference record (if Rams win). Eagles get last spot for the same reason. If the Packers win, then everything works as it did in the bullet above. Result: Giants 5th, Eagles 6th.
[*] Giants win, Carolina, Green Bay and St. Louis all lose. That leaves a 3-way tie between the Eagles, Giants, and Falcons. The Giants win the tiebreaker with Eagles, and then the Falcons (H2H win). For the sixth spot, Atlanta gets it for having beaten the Eagles by assumption. Result: NYG 5th, Atl 6th.
[*] Giants, Rams win, Panthers and Packers lose. 4-way tie between Phi, NYG, Atl, and StL. Giants win tiebreaker with Eagles, then with other two based on better conference record. Eagles get last spot with better conference record. Result: Giants 5th, Eagles 6th
[*] Giants lose, Carolina and Green Bay win. After divisional tiebreaker, Philadelphia and Green Bay go to next round due to better conference record. Philadelphia gets 5th spot due to H2H. Green Bay gets 6th spot based on conference record. Result: Philly 5th, GB 6th
[*] Giants and Packers lose, Carolina win. Philadelphia get 5th spot due to either better conference record or having beaten Carolina (depends on St. Louis result). Carolina gets 6th spot by winning tiebreaker against Atlanta and beating St. Louis. Result: Iggles 5th, Carolina 6th.
[*] Giants and Carolina lose, Green Bay win. 3 or 4 way tie with Phi, Atl, GB, and StL (maybe). Eagles go through first due to better conference record eliminating all but them and GB. Green Bay get 6th due to better conference. Result: Eagles 5th, Packers 6th.
[*] NYG, Carolina, and Green Bay lose, St. Louis wins. 3 way tie (PHI, ATL, StL). Eagles get 5th due to better nonconference. The Falcons and Rams would have the same conference record, so it goes to common opponents. They played Carolina (Atl 1-1, Rams 0-1), Arizona (Atl 1-0, StL 1-1), Detroit (Atl 0-1, StL 1-0), Washington (both 1-0). Atlanta's record against those is 3-2 while St. Louis' is 3-2. So it also would go to strength of victory. This Atlanta would win. Result: Eagles 5th, Atlanta 6th
[*] NYG, Carolina, Green Bay and St. Louis all lose. Eagles and Falcons are tied, Falcons get 5th due to head-to-head victory.
[/list]

If the Eagles win tomorrow, they go to 9-6 as do the Cowboys. If Philadelphia beats the Falcons or the Cowboys lose then Philadelphia wins the division and the Cowboys are the 5th seed. If the Eagles lose and Cowboys win in week 16, then the reverse is true.

If the Giants win, then they are in. They beat GB due to better Strength of Victory, they beat Atlanta and Carolina by H2H and conference record, and they beat St. Louis by better conference record. So they can lose no tie-breaker.

If the Giants lose:
<ul type="square">[*] If Green Bay win and St. Louis lose or Carolina win or Atlanta win then Green Bay gets the sixth spot.
[*] If Green Bay and St. Louis win and Atlanta and Carolina lose then Green Bay and St. Louis are tied at 8-8 and St. Louis get sixth by winning head-to-head.
[*] If Green Bay lose and Carolina and St. Louis win, it will come down to a tiebreaker between St. Louis and Carolina regardless of the Atlanta - Phillly result. Carolina get the sixth spot due to head-to-head.
[*] If Green Bay and Carolina lose and Atlanta win then Atlanta are in. They win a tiebreaker with St. Louis should they win due to a better Strength of Victory.
[*] If Green Bay and St. Louis lose then Carolina get the sixth spot if they win. If they lose and Atlanta wins then Atlanta are in. If they both lose, then the Giants are in at 7-9 due to the monstrosity of a tiebreaker I gave above.[/list]So that's it [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[JaredL]

In order to get into the playoffs:

Eagles get in if:
<ul type="square">[*] They win against the Cowboys.[*] They win against Atlanta[*] The Giants lose next week OR at least one of Carolina, Green Bay, and St. Louis win.[/list]
Giants are in if:
<ul type="square">[*] They win next week.[*] All 7-8 teams lose.[/list]
All other teams must win next week. For each, I'll give what else can happen for them to make it to the playoffs. So as above, they only need one of these bullets to be met, for a bullet to be met everything must happen:

Carolina:
<ul type="square">[*] The Eagles lose tomorrow. The Eagles beat the Falcons, the Giants and Green Bay lose.[*] The Eagles lose tomorrow and next week to the Falcons. The Giants and Packers lose in week 16.[*] The Eagles win tomorrow. The Giants and Packers lose next week.[/list]
Atlanta:
<ul type="square">[*] Eagles lose tomorrow. Next week Rams win, Carolina and Green Bay both lose.[*] Eagles win tomorrow. Next week Green Bay and Carolina lose.[/list]
Green Bay:
<ul type="square">[*] Eagles lose tomorrow. Next week the Giants lose.[*] Eagles win tomorrow. St. Louis lose next week.[*] Eagles win tomorrow. Carolina or Atlanta win next week.[/list]
St. Louis:
<ul type="square">[*] Eagles lose tomorrow. Next week Eagles beat Falcons. Giants, Green Bay, and Carolina lose.[/list]

[JaredL]

I'm pretty confident that it's correct. I did write the stuff in the OP as I went, checking to make sure I had considered all possible cases.

It's all quite crazy. Not only could several teams be tied, but once it gets heads up in the tiebreaking process several ties have to be proken by strength of victory.

[JaredL]

Also, I didn't discuss 2nd versus 3rd which is important. If the Eagles beat Dallas, then New Orleans gets the bye. If the Cowboys win, then NO would need either a win or a Dallas loss on week 16.

In other words:
New Orleans gets the 2 seed if they win next week, or Dallas lose one of their last 2 games. Dallas gets in if they win out and the Saints lose next week.

[Case Closed]

Wow, intense write up.

Alls I knows is the bears = home field advantage.

[MinRaise]

Excellent work. I was curious about this and far less motivated.

[Karak567]

Jared, do you mind if I repost this to another board of mine (on another board system)? I will give credit to you and link to the OP, of course.

Also, great work. I was looking at all the media reports trying to find this!

[fingokra]

thanks, nice job

[JaredL]

Ugh, too late to edit.

This should be the corrected paragraph, toward the end:
[ QUOTE ]

If the Eagles win tomorrow, they go to 9-6 as do the Cowboys. If Philadelphia beats the Falcons or the Cowboys lose then Philadelphia wins the division and the Cowboys are the 5th seed. If the Eagles lose and Cowboys win in week 17, then the reverse is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
Jared, do you mind if I repost this to another board of mine (on another board system)? I will give credit to you and link to the OP, of course.

Also, great work. I was looking at all the media reports trying to find this!

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, feel free.