$11 on the bubble, KTs... it looked pretty!

[Unknown Soldier]

PartyPoker Regular Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t3420)
Hero (t1810)
SB (t13270)
BB (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t1810</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>



I figured this was good because short stack was the bb.

[Hand_Crasher]

I think it's -EV.

[ger664]

This is a fold.

Big Stack is never tight enough here to make this +$EV

[Sparta45]

I like it unless you've pushed a ton recently.......I think your hand is just strong enough to push....

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold.

Big Stack is never tight enough here to make this +$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

range?

[ger664]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold.

Big Stack is never tight enough here to make this +$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

range?

[/ QUOTE ]

He seems to have got quite a big stack early so what hands did he show down in the process??

I am just thinking that he did not get this stack by folding to raise and re-raises and probably would call with something like 22+,A2+,KTo+,K6s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs and maybe some connectors suited connectors etc.

[TruFloridaGator]

Just SNGPT it or something. It could easily be a push. Depends on ranges, reads.

[Costanza]

You don't need someone on this forum to tell you whether to push or not in this situation. You need someone to show you how to figure this out for yourself. This is bread and butter SnG bubble play, and there is a "right" answer depending on your reads on the players left to act.

You're less than 10BB, so the only preflop options you should be considering are push or fold. You make this decision based on what range of hands you think the 2 remaining players will call you with.

After that, there are some tools you should have available to help work through the math. You're going to need something like PokerStove to see how well your hand holds up against the range of hands each opponent might call you with. You'll then need an ICM calculator to give you an idea of how each decision affects your tournament equity.

For example (I'm going to use round numbers to make it easier to follow), let's say you come up with a range of hands the SB will call you with and it comes out to the top 25% of hands. For now, let's assume the BB will always fold. You run this range through PokerStove and find that you'll win 25% of the times you're called. You then plug stack sizes into the ICM calculator and find that your tournament equity is $20 if you fold, $40 if he calls and you win and $0 if he calls and you lose/bust out of the tourment.

In this case, your average equity if you're called is ($40)(0.25) + ($0)(0.75) = $10. So you should fold.

Of course, the BB isn't always going to fold, so the full calculation will be more complicated. Your equity when BB calls (let's call it EVBB) = (equity if you win)(chance you win) + (equity if you lose)(chance you lose). The same applies for your equity when SB calls (EVSB). You should also be able to calculate your equity when both fold (EVfold). So:

Overall EV of pushing = (EVBB)(chance BB calls) + (EVSB)(chance SB calls) + (EVfold)(chance both blinds fold)


Complicated? Maybe. But it's worth working through it a couple of times so you can get an idea of where these numbers come from.

SnGPT automates this process for you and is a very powerful tool. But, like most powerful tools, if you don't understand how it works it can get you into trouble. I think it's really worth working through the problems manually a few times before you just start SnGPT'ing it.