Donk's Hoops Thread (12/8-12/14)

Donk4Life · #1 12-08-2006, 02:26 AM

I'm going to take a crack at some hoops this year. I usually wait this long to see how things are shaking out. My first pick was Notre Dame tonight and I felt I had the game pegged. Several things went against Alabama tonight:

1) They were on the road against a team with heart. That usually spells doom for a Gottfried coached team.

2) Notre Dame plays like champions at home against higher ranked teams.

3) The extremely highly ranked team was an UNDERDOG against an unranked team. Sucker bet for people to take, and they did.

On to Friday's picks:

LOUISVILLE -14.5 (145.5) Ohio: Louisville has been wildly underperforming so far this year. However, this is a game that could put them on a good pace. Daunting task for both teams, as there will be 3 games in 3 days for the NABC Classic, a round-robin tournament at Freedom Hall. You should expect a lot of substitutions for both teams as both will be wanting to keep fresh legs for the grueling round robin format. Louisville suffered an injury early in the year from PG Andre McGee that will hinder the bench play. Ohio rolls into Louisville at 4-1 on the season, but is only 1-4 ATS. Louisville gets too much respect from oddsmakers as it is, and Ohio's dismal PS record may be providing some value here. Louisville is only 1-2 ATS and 2-2 SU. Gritty St. Joseph's team on deck for Louisville on Saturday night. Sexy pick here is to take Louisville, but I'll take the points and play

Ohio- 1 unit

IOWA -6.5 (129.5)Iowa St-- 05-ISU -2 72-60. That's a big stat and leads to a revenge game for the Hawkeyes. Iowa state championship has already been won by Northern Iowa after they dumped both teams earlier, beating Iowa on the road in their last match. Iowa State has lost two in a row to in-state teams (UNI and Drake) and has something to prove. This total looks about right to me, so I'll stay away that play. However, I think we're going to see a good match-up here and a motivated Iowa State team that has been road-tested and has a better record. The Hawkeyes have played much classier competition and stand to benefit from home court and motivation in a Double Revenge setting.

Iowa- 2 units

DRAKE -10 (151)Troy- 11/20 Troy 80-Drake 75(Fairbanks, AK)Rare non-conference 2 game series here as Drake and Troy played each other in the Top of the World Classic a few weeks ago. Drake is definitely salivating for this meeting, as they blew a late lead in the game. Most of the time, third-place games don't mean a lot, but I'm sure they do in this case. This is only Drake's second game at home this year and should prove to be a one-sided affair.

Drake (1 unit)

Donk4Life · #2 12-09-2006, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
LOUISVILLE -14.5 (145.5) Ohio: Louisville has been wildly underperforming so far this year. However, this is a game that could put them on a good pace. Daunting task for both teams, as there will be 3 games in 3 days for the NABC Classic, a round-robin tournament at Freedom Hall. You should expect a lot of substitutions for both teams as both will be wanting to keep fresh legs for the grueling round robin format. Louisville suffered an injury early in the year from PG Andre McGee that will hinder the bench play. Ohio rolls into Louisville at 4-1 on the season, but is only 1-4 ATS. Louisville gets too much respect from oddsmakers as it is, and Ohio's dismal PS record may be providing some value here. Louisville is only 1-2 ATS and 2-2 SU. Gritty St. Joseph's team on deck for Louisville on Saturday night. Sexy pick here is to take Louisville, but I'll take the points and play

Ohio- 1 unit

IOWA -6.5 (129.5)Iowa St-- 05-ISU -2 72-60. That's a big stat and leads to a revenge game for the Hawkeyes. Iowa state championship has already been won by Northern Iowa after they dumped both teams earlier, beating Iowa on the road in their last match. Iowa State has lost two in a row to in-state teams (UNI and Drake) and has something to prove. This total looks about right to me, so I'll stay away that play. However, I think we're going to see a good match-up here and a motivated Iowa State team that has been road-tested and has a better record. The Hawkeyes have played much classier competition and stand to benefit from home court and motivation in a Double Revenge setting.

Iowa- 2 units

DRAKE -10 (151)Troy- 11/20 Troy 80-Drake 75(Fairbanks, AK)Rare non-conference 2 game series here as Drake and Troy played each other in the Top of the World Classic a few weeks ago. Drake is definitely salivating for this meeting, as they blew a late lead in the game. Most of the time, third-place games don't mean a lot, but I'm sure they do in this case. This is only Drake's second game at home this year and should prove to be a one-sided affair.

Drake (1 unit)

[/ QUOTE ]

Good start to my college basketball season. We're going to have a good one. I'll have my picks for tomorrow up very soon.

YTD: 3-0 (+3 units)

Donk4Life · #3 12-09-2006, 02:16 AM

Sorry, +5 units

Donk4Life · #4 12-09-2006, 02:16 AM

I meant 4 units, what the hell is wrong with me?

Donk4Life · #5 12-09-2006, 02:44 AM

MINNESOTA -9 UALR- Minnesota has started playing better since their coach resigned earlier this month, even showing heart on the road against UAB. UALR has proven to be terrible on the road, losing to Centenary their last time traveling. Also, McNeese State beat UALR at home their last game. Minnesota covered their last game and has been a good bully. Linesmakers will undervalue Minnesota a little while longer, but they should effectively punish UALR tomorrow.

MINNESOTA 1 Unit

VILLANOVA -10 Drexel. Villanova should handle Drexel. This is a crosstown rivalry, but Villanova has played much classier competition and has dominated it. Drexel has fattened up on lower level teams and has done a poor job of covering spreads. Definite trend play here as Villanova is 4-1 ATS while Drexel is 1-3.

Villanova 1 unit

Donk4Life · #6 12-09-2006, 03:04 AM

BAYLOR -6.5 South Carolina. Baylor must beat some quality non-conference competition if they want a chance to increase their RPI. For the past few weeks, they have been fattening up on SWAC schools and that will do nothing to help them. Therefore, they must win these next two games. The Bears have had a week to prepare for this game and will be ready. Waco is a difficult place to play and should have a decent crowd. S.C. has played inconsistent as usual. Maybe a threepeat in the NIT for the Gamecocks, but they don't win this one.

Baylor 1 unit

Donk4Life · #7 12-09-2006, 03:15 AM

Georgia Tech -3 VANDERBILT. This is a play I'll usually make. Anyone who has ever seen Vandy at home or been to a game there knows it is the strangest basketball stadium in the NCAA. Coaches and players alike have problems adjusting to the placement of teams at opposite ends of the court as well as the raised floor over the crowd. Vanderbilt is in a revenge situation here with zero wins against quality conference opponents this season. Georgia Tech has looked very good this season, especially in Maui. However, they dropped their first and only game on the road this week against Miami. They are capable of beating Vanderbilt, but I'll take the points at home here.

Vandy 1 unit

03 Z4 · #8 12-09-2006, 03:07 PM

@ VILLANOVA -10 Drexel. Villanova should handle Drexel. This is a crosstown rivalry, but Villanova has played much classier competition and has dominated it. Drexel has fattened up on lower level teams and has done a poor job of covering spreads. Definite trend play here as Villanova is 4-1 ATS while Drexel is 1-3.

Villanova 1 unit

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm w/ u here. Drexel lost 49-68 @ Penn. Penn lost 89-99 @ home to Villanova.

From article on their last game 03/14/2004, UV won by 15...
"It was a RARE CLOSE game in an incredibly LOPSIDED series between the two Philadelphia-area schools that are separated by about 20 miles. Villanova has won all 17 games in a series that dates back to 1923-24."

Chickenfly69 · #9 12-09-2006, 04:38 PM

Riding with baylor, vandy and villanova, woke up late so I couldn't get minnesota, but seeing as they lost by one I guess I was lucky.

Donk4Life · #10 12-10-2006, 07:24 AM

1-3 yesterday (-2.3 units) I'm counting 10% vig, even though Pinny doesn't have that.

Overall: 4-3 (+1.7 units)

Texas +2 LSU (At Houston). Revenge game from last year's Elite Eight. Take the underdog, who has played much classier competition this year and will have Double Revenge after losing to Gonzaga 8 days ago.

Texas 2 units

VIRGINIA TECH -15 (133.5) Appalachian State. Look for App. State to slow this game down. ASU not exactly lighting it up on the road this year. 3 of the last 4 games ASU has played went under the total. All games that went under, went under 133.5. VT has yet to go over the total at home. Play the trend.

Under 133.5 1 unit