QQ, set on river on scary board vs idiot

[joeyb]

villian is 74/26.7/1.06 over 80 or so hands. i have that he donks into pf raiser with TPNK on flop. i also noted that he has bluff raised the turn if a scare card hits. Do you bet the river here? Just call the turn?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8 BB

[danzasmack]

I would just call the turn and I would bet/call this river.

[Buckmulligan]

i call the turn; bet call the river.

[jba]

third

[mvoss]

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i call the turn; bet call the river.

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[TomBrooks]

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i call the turn; bet call the river.

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You think this guy is donktastic enough to raise the river w/o a straight?

How often does a bluff raise occur in this situation given the base of all 2/4 players? Anyone care to venture an estimate?

[jba]

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How often does a bluff raise occur in this situation given the base of all 2/4 players? Anyone care to venture an estimate?

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I think a bluff raise is rare but that really isn't the important thing, because I think the raise itself is rare.

The only thing that matters is how often he is bluffing when he does raise. the texture of the board tells me that he only really has a straight if he has AQ (with the case queen) or AK (improbable given preflop). I definitely think it's a bluff 1/12 times, even though I'm not a regular in this game.

but you have to bet, he's very rarely betting two pair (his most likely hand by far IMO) because we should have an ace.

[TomBrooks]

Looking at this again, I would go bet/call. I'd call because I don't think an Ace checks there and a c/r is very suspicious. Without question I would bet though. The only question would be whether to call a c/r. Rarely will he have KK and it's a rare bird that would check raise it so you're rarely going to have to pay 2 to see that.

[jakbse]

I bet, call and cry.

[Thorv]

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I would go bet/call. I'd call because I don't think an Ace checks there and a c/r is very suspicious.

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