A very interesting hand and its analysis, for serious players

[Roman_gladiator]

You are playing head up with one opponent. You are even in chips with 5000 chips each. Blinds are 25/50. Small blind is also the button. You are in the Big Blind.
-Your opponent calls, it’s up to you. Your hand (Jc 7s)

Check
Raise to 125
Raise to 200

Check, you don’t have a great hand but it does have some value, no point in raising here just check and see a flop.

-You check. The pot is 100. Flop comes (Th 9d 6h). Action is on you:

Check
Bet 50
Bet 100

Bet 50, you have an inside straight draw and your opponent may very well have nothing, so bet half the pot; the bet will break even if you win the pot with it 1 in 3 times, that is if you never win the hand later on with the best hand. You have 4 outs for the inside straight and perhaps 3 more for the jack, so this bet should show a nice profit, betting 100 is too much, you want to take the pot cheaply.

-You bet 50, and your opponent calls. Pot is 200. Turn comes (8d). What do you do?

Check
Bet 100
Bet 200

-You should check, with the intention of raising of course. You have the near nuts only Q J has you beat and it’s unlikely because he didn’t raise preflop. So your job now is to get as much money from your opponent as you can. Now you should think what he could have called you with on the flop and what he has now, let’s take a look.

-A pair: tens, nines, or sixes. With a hand like this he will be hard pressed to call a bet on the turn, and even more on the river. He may call a bet of 100 with a Nine or Ten, but will he call another bet on the river, probably not. However if you check he will see your play as taking a small stab at the pot preflop and now backing off when a scary card comes he will likely bet if you check into him, and if he checks behind you it is likely that he will call a bet on the river, which will make you the same amount as just betting out on the turn. So checking is betting in this situation.

-An eight. He had an inside straight draw preflop, called a small bet and now made a pair of eights. Just as if he had a nine ten or a six, he now has a pair and will be hard pressed to call two bets on the turn and river but once again he will bet if you check to him.

-Two pair, an unlikely holding but certainly not impossible. Here it is better to bet into him. He will likely call a value bet on the turn and likely call another one on the river, but will likely lay the hand down on the turn to the power play of a check raise. Here betting has a higher expectation.

-A flush draw. With two hearts he called a bet on the flop, and missed his flush on the turn, or with two diamonds likely with a pair probably sixes or an eight for an inside straight draw. Possibly with two diamonds with an ace and but it is unlikely since he probably would’ve raised preflop with a suited Ace. In these cases you could make a pot sized bet of 200 to deny him odds for drawing to a flush but there are several problems with this bet, first he may not have only a naked flush draw, he may have another draw with it like an straight draw with a Queen or a Jack, or a pair and a flush draw. In that case that bet will not make him lay down his hand. Another problem is that the pot and your bet is small relative to your remaining chip stacks, so he may just call with a lone flush draw basing his call on implied odds, which you know he will be getting since you will find it nearly impossible to lay your hand down on the river if a flush card comes. But let’s look at checking here, if you check, what will he do with a flush draw? He may check behind you and take a free card which you would very much dislike however, just like in the previous examples it looks to him like you’ve made a small bluff at the pot on the flop and gave up on the turn, so the pot looks win-able. In this case he may make a bet on the turn with his flush draw anyway where you can raise and deny him the pot odds for drawing.

-Nothing. He called on the flop with an ace or a king thinking he had the best hand, and now the turn missed him again. If you bet he will just fold his hand, but as the logic previously showed if you check, it will look like a bet will take the pot now, and with nothing this is his best chance to win this pot. So checking in this situation is obviously superior.

-A seven. This is the most interesting case. He called preflop on an inside straight draw, or pair and an inside straight draw and now made a straight. You of course have the higher straight so you want to make as much money as possible in this situation. If you bet he may raise, which will be perfect, and you can re-raise and eventually get all of his chips, but he may just call which will not get much money into the pot on this street. Then on the river if a flush card comes, he may be hesitant to raise your bet with a straight and may just flat call. If you check however he will bet his straight into you, then you will raise getting a lot of money on this street and as an added bonus; it will be easier for you to get more money into the pot on this river.

So all taken into account, checking and raising will earn you a considerable amount more money on average than just betting out, also it will make your decision on the river easier if a flush card comes.

-You check. Your opponent bets 200. Pot is 400. What now?


Call
Raise to 500 (300 more)
Raise to 800 (600 more)

You checked your opponent bet as you planned, now follow through and make a good raise, and raise a lot: 800. Weak hands like nothing, a pair, and probably two pair will not call any raise, but if he has a flush draw or a seven this raise will put more money into the pot and make the flush pay to draw.

-You raise to 800. He calls. Pot is 1800. River comes (2c). Now what?

Check
Bet 600
Bet 900
Bet 1500
Bet 2000

Well there is no clear cut answer to this. The answer is that it varies with your opponent and his caliber of play. Let’s take a look at all your opponent types and decide the best play.

Very Weak: If you opponent is a very weak inexperienced beginning player who is just learning that game, what hands could he have now? Well it is certainly not limited to just a 7 and a flush draw as we analyzed earlier. He may well have called a raise with a two pair or even top pair. Here the best play is to bet 900, your opponent will call this half pot bet occasionally with top pair and with two pair, after all he did call a raise on the turn with it. How could he fold now? Also this bet is small enough that he will raise with a 7 where you will re-raise and get the rest of his chips.

Weak: against a weak inexperienced opponent the situation is different. He probably would not have called on the turn with just one pair, but an adventurous beginner may have called 600 more with two pair. The best play here I think is betting 600. You inexperienced opponent will see a small bet and decide that he is getting good pot odds to call with his two pair which he may fold to a 900 bet since it is the same amount he already called on the turn, he may also call with a weaker hand such as a pair with a busted flush draw because he is (getting good odds). Once again thins bet is small so he will even more likely raise with a 7 thinking; I got a straight, I want to win more than this measly bet on the river, and raise.

Intermediate: Now here’s an interesting case. Your opponent understands the basis of the game and hand values. What could he have on the turn to call? This player will see the one gap straight on the board and not call a big re-raise with two pair or worse. But he would call with a 7 for a straight and a flush draw, probably with a Q, J, or pair to go along with it. The best play here is to check. If you bet a small amount, 600 or 900 he will fold if he has a flush draw (even with a pair), and maybe call or raise if he has a 7. If you bet big 1500 or 2000, he will again fold a flush draw but if he has a 7 he will see a big bet and freeze up and decline to raise by just calling making you less money than if he raised and you re-raised. Let’s look at what happens if you check, if he has a 7, he will see it as his last chance to make money on the river with a straight and he will certainly bet, where you will raise and make more money then just a big bet on the river when he called. Also if he has a flush draw while he certainly will not call on the river, he may see it as his last chance to win the pot and make a crude bluff on the river which you will snap off. So here Checking is clearly the superior play.

Very experienced professional player: This opponent is very astute and observative; he will be watching you play and putting you on a range of hands, as we are now doing. What does your play look like to him now? You bet on the flop on what could have been a real hand such as two pair or top pair, a medium pair nines or sixes, a draw; a small inside straight draw or a legitimate flush draw. Then after the eight came you checked which looked like you gave up on the hand or you were afraid to bet because of the scare card that came on the turn. You checked and he bet the pot and you made a big raise back to him. At that point what hands coincide with your actions? Would you do this with two pair, top pair, or middle pair? Surely you wouldn’t since you don’t have a hand, but it isn’t even close to strong enough to check raise with when there is a one gap straight on the board, you are probably going to check call or just bet with those hands instead. With a flush draw you certainly wouldn’t make such a bizarre play. How about a seven? Making a straight on the turn may constitute a check raise like that but would you really do that with a seven? A big reason we check raised with this hand on the turn is because we beat a seven, and check raising there makes a substantial amount more than just betting out, in fact if you had just a 7 value betting would be as good a play as checking, and if you did decide to check, a call would have been a much better play than the raise. So what does he think you have at this point? The only possible hands you would do this with are Q J, which is unlikely because you probably would’ve raised preflop, J 7 which we know you have, or possibly (a long shot) a seven with a flush draw which would give you a freeroll against a 7 without the flush draw (it certainly would be a creative play). So with that in mind he thinks you are either on a complete bluff or a longshot huge hand. With that reasoning in mind and being a professional player he may have the courage to call you down with just one pair. If you check on the river however, he would very possibly check a seven back to you since a failed bluff would fold and a monster will come over the top. So the best play against a professional would be to make a big bet which would look like a bluff. I would bet 2000 here a good overbet of the pot that would well represent a bluff.

How about if your opponent is a good player observative, but with not as much experience and cold bloodedness of a professional? Here the decision is close, he may have seen that you could have raised the turn on a complete bluff and called you with just one pair, but if you make a big bet on the river he might not be able to go through with his read and fold his hand rather than risk a huge portion of his remaining chips, or he may just call the big bet with a seven rather than raise fearing a monster. Also unlike the professional he may go through the same reasoning but still not be able to check down a straight on the river also he may bet a busted flush draw thinking that if you were bluffing and his draw is low (only jack or queen high he may take the pot away from you if you were on a bluff). So the decision is close here, I would lean more towards betting 2000 since the times he gathers up the courage to call with just one pair will well make up for the times he would bet a busted flush draw, also checking and raising when he has the seven while it will make more money than betting 2000, it will be disastrous when he checks the seven behind you. So betting would be my preferred play.

In the actual hand, the player decided to check his J 7 on the river and his opponent who was had put him on a bluff uttered a sigh of relief and checked his 9 4 of clubs behind him for a pair of nines.

[snorer]

huhhhhhhhhh?

[Goldmund]

Huh...what is this? I stopped reading after

[ QUOTE ]
-You bet 50, and your opponent calls. Pot is 200. Turn comes (8d). What do you do?

Check
Bet 100
Bet 200

-You should check, with the intention of raising of course.

[/ QUOTE ]


You dont check...you bet and hope you stack him with the idiot end of the straight, a JT-ish type of hand or 2-pair/set. Goldmund

[Pondus]

[ QUOTE ]
He had an inside straight draw preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he's obviously cheating...

[bbbushu]

damn, the HUNLHE players are pretty hard on (an apparently hard-working) somebody's first post.

[nycballer]

[ QUOTE ]

-Your opponent calls, it’s up to you. Your hand (Jc 7s)

Check, you don’t have a great hand but it does have some value, no point in raising here just check and see a flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

stopped reading here as this shows title is a clear joke. the answer is rrrrrrraise

[XxPenguinxX]

It is a very good post - I will try to read through it later.