Hypothetical Sports Contest #1

David Sklansky · #1 12-08-2006, 11:58 PM

Being very busy with Bellagio side games I will shamelessly exploit the interest in these questions to temporarily keep this forum going without much effort on my part. So

Is Ohio State favored to beat the the NY Giants if they can play twelve players versus eleven?

blackize · #2 12-09-2006, 12:09 AM

My guess is no. The skill differential is huge as is the size and strength differential. Not to mention that their offensive scheme would be hopelessly ineffective due to the pure athleticism of the opposing defense.

iggymcfly · #3 12-09-2006, 12:13 AM

Of course they are. There's no way that teams that are even remotely evenly matched can compete with one less player in their opponents, and given that at least a few OSU players could play at the professional level, this would be an easy bet.

blackize · #4 12-09-2006, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Of course they are. There's no way that teams that are even remotely evenly matched can compete with one less player in their opponents, and given that at least a few OSU players could play at the professional level, this would be an easy bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of those that could play at the professional level, maybe 1 or 2 would be starters. Would you place a bet on 12 random NFL backups v 11 NYG starters?

Edit: A lot of those guys won't even be backups, they'll be 3rd stringers or on the practice squad.

With these teams the skill gap is especially large in the most key positions, the linemen. This fact alone should be enough to sway things in the Giants favor.

Humble Pie · #5 12-09-2006, 12:24 AM

No, OSU doesn't even have an edge w/ a two man advantage.

rjp · #6 12-09-2006, 12:34 AM

Even if Ohio St. were to create a new playbook to utilize the man advantage the Giants have better talent.

cbloom · #7 12-09-2006, 01:02 AM

Pro or college rules? Pro rules the giants win. College rules OSU has a chance.

Matt Williams · #8 12-09-2006, 01:09 AM

Look at Leinart and Bush. Both are struggling at the pro level although they are starting to get the hang of the speed the NFL has to offer. Both were in the top 5 Heisman wise, yet barely cracked the starting line up/didn't start at all.

A better question would be; "Would an ave. NFL starter win the Heisman if put in the right college scheme to maximize his talents?".

___1___ · #9 12-09-2006, 01:09 AM

The Giants still win easily. The man advantage doesn't come close to making up for the disparity on the offensive and defensive lines in favor of the Giants.

___1___

JaredL · #10 12-09-2006, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way that teams that are even remotely evenly matched can compete with one less player in their opponents,

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They aren't even remotely evenly matched. They aren't even close to that. They aren't even remotely close to being remotely close to being remotely evenly matched. I would even venture to say that they aren't remotely close to being remotely close to being remotely close to being evenly matched.

The Giants are better at every position. Moreover, with few exceptions the corresponding player on the Giants is better in every single dimension that matters (faster, stronger, better understanding of the game, better technique, etc.). This is not to mention the huge size advantage. Even if it stayed somewhere in the neighborhood of close (which wouldn't happen even with 12 players), the OSU guys would wear down very quickly and with huge impact. While you could argue, incorrectly, that a lot of OSU players will go to the NFL and this means that the teams are close, once the starters have to come out the gap would be ludicrous.

I think the Giants absolutely destroy OSU 12 on 11. I'm not sure how many it would take to make OSU a favorite, I think the Giants would still win a solid majority 13 on 11. Even with 2 extra I think Ohio State would have a lot of trouble moving the ball. They would spread it out probably, but the Giants would be able to get a lot of pressure on Smith and would do a much better job at not letting him run than college teams do, also the corners will be vastly superior covering and OSU would have a ton of problems handling the various schemes in place. Ohio State would have a ton of trouble stopping the Giants even with a couple extra guys, especially in the running game.