AQs, live 20-40

[brettbrettr]

Live 20 game, great lineup, I'm only an orbit in.

EP (unknown, seemingly aggressive, probably a bit short of his values froim what I understand, but I don't know him and he doesn't know me)

MP1 decent player, good hand reader, fairly laggy, thinks I'm a nit)

MP2 (not good lag)

Button (fish)

EP opens, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Button calls, I call in the BB with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], all call.

5 to the flop for 15.5 sbs.

J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EP bets, MP raises, MP2 calls, button folds, I three-bet, EP caps (damn), both call.

4 players for 15 BBs.

Turn is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, EP makes a checking motion then tries to bet. The floor is called and its ruled a check. MP2 checks, Button checks.

The river is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

This is a super-easy check and call right?

[william288]

c/r the field.
ep does not have set. Otherwise he will not check the turn on that board. He has aj. KJ may not call the pf cap. at least one of MP is on draw, or both.

[brettbrettr]

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ep does not have set. Otherwise he will not check the turn on that board.

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[ QUOTE ]
EP makes a checking motion then tries to bet. The floor is called and its ruled a check.

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[william288]

ep is a aggr guy. he can not have jj. otherwise he will cap pf. the possibility of 88/44 is also low. on that board, he should keep gas because draw on there.

EP makes a checking motion then tries to bet. The floor is called and its ruled a check.

i do not know. this guy is tricky?

but anyway, i will c/r the field on river. most likey ep has aj, one of mp has draw, or small pair. It worthes a c/r. if we are being 3bet, we have a decision to make.

[william288]

one of mp may have 2 over. if you bet river, likely ep will call, one of mp will fold his 2 over. one of mp may fold his small pair. because after all of these action, your donkey bet river makes your cards faceup.

if you check, you can count on ep bet, one of the mp may call his 2 over and the other may call his small pair because the pot is relative large and he may also think ep is on draw. All depend on how good they are. The key is the pot is large. we are trying our best to draw more money

[brettbrettr]

pre-flop, after the 3-bet EP capped.

Sorry, forgot to include that.

[william288]

now i am c/c and suppose to lose. my call is due to the pot size.

[brettbrettr]

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otherwise he will cap pf.

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He did. My bad for not including that in OP.

[ QUOTE ]
i do not know. this guy is tricky?

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In my experience over-aggro not good players like him are, but I don't know him. Just that he's reportedly laggy.

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if we are being 3bet, we have a decision to make.

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I'm not sure there's that much difference here bwteen betting and getting raised and check-raising and getting reraised. I think we're likely fuct in both cases.

[RobA]

My first instinct was definite check/call, but I think william288 has some very good ideas.

Here's how I look at. I estimate you're ahead 25% of the time here.

If you check/call you win 1-2 BB the 25% of the time ahead (1 caller before you sometimes). You lose 1-2BB (a bet from EP and possible raise from a made straight) the 75% of the time you lose. EV of this play is -.75BB.

If CR - you win 3BB the 25% of the time you're good (assume one of those trapped by CR will call) and you lose 2-3BB the 75% of the time you lose (sometimes they 3-bet sometimes they don't). EV of this is -2.5BB.

If you bet out - you win 1BB the 25% you are good, and you lose 1-2BB the 75% of times you are bad (they raise you sometimes). EV of this is -.875.

So you lose the least on the river play with a check/call which enables you to pull down the big pot with the least long-run damage.

Now go ahead and lemme know the 10 conceptual and math errors I made above in my analysis.

[James.]

i guess you forego the cap to see what EP does? 'cause i usually cold cap in that spot against that table of goofturds based on your image. on the river i kind of want to bet, but i'm checking and seeing how the action unfolds behind me.