2-7 always bet in this situation?

Fiasco · #1 12-06-2006, 07:38 PM

If youre HU with position with one draw left, and youre opponent just drew one and you just drew one and paired is it always correct to bet when checked to so that your opponent will not know whether he can stand pat on a J or T?

Guruman · #2 12-06-2006, 08:01 PM

It may depend on the pot size and the quality of your draw.

If there's a good chance that you're drawing dead or that the villain will checkraise you then you may just want to check through and throw the hail-mary. If your oppnent is the type to fold rivers lightly then this is probably a good snowing spot. If you've had good discards then you can probalby just bet and then draw.

Also, if you check through and draw then the problem your opponent will have if he pats a J is that he'll have no idea if you connect or not and he allows you to play the river perfectly.

DeathDonkey · #3 12-06-2006, 08:45 PM

Definitely do not always bet in this situation. If your opponent consistently checks tens and jacks to you here you will beat him by taking the free card when you need it. Betting here when you intend to draw is almost always a mistake, you are basically increasing your variance the times you are both drawing and getting killed the times he is pat and calls or checkraises you. Note that you might bet here and snow though.

-DeathDonkey

MarkGritter · #4 12-06-2006, 09:43 PM

No, it is certainly not correct to always bet. It is OK to sometimes bet.

Suppose you have a very strong draw like 7432K, and are up against a fairly rough hand like T8753. If he stands pat he is 0.595 to win. If he breaks he is 0.436 to win. So you are betting in the hope of gaining 16% equity. Other 8 draws give similar results.

If he has a J you are actually 50% to win, so the gain is only 6.4% equity. If the pot is not large than this 16% may not be worth the risk. You might earn more my letting him show weakness and then value-betting the river (or bluffing, depending on what his tendencies are.)

Now, paying one bet to win 66% of an N+2 bet pot is certainly always better than winning 40% of an N bet pot. And if you're the favorite going into the last draw anyway, your bet will be profitable. But sometimes you're a dog going into the last draw, and if you bet consistently enough you will be a 40% dog or worse who has paid two bets for his draw when he could have paid one or none.

If you always bet, your opponent will be able to correctly determine that most of the time you are not actually pat and check-raise you much more loosely. He will stop betting into you with his pat hands entirely.

At best he will just check/call and stand pat against your bets more often.

I would only bet my strongest draws this way, and not consistently.

(I see a lot of people on Stars who bet their wheel draws strongly in position on the 2nd round, against a player known to be drawing one, and then just check behind on the 3rd round. This doesn't make a lot of sense to me either. If the 2nd round bet or raise had value, the 3rd round bet must have value too.)