Folding the best hand

gwhiz_612 · #1 11-27-2006, 10:27 PM

Ok call me lazy but I think some of you could figure this out alot faster than me. Lets say that I know my opponents holecards. He has T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] the flop comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] We are playing full ring 5/10 NL with about 10k each. We are heads up and he bets 200 I make it 1k and he goes all in. If I know his cards and I know he has 15 outs should I fold? Do I use pot odds theory here? What if I hold A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Basicly my question is...Should I fold the best hand in certain situations?

Gonso · #2 11-28-2006, 06:50 AM

If your opponent has 14 or more legitimate outs, <u>and has 2 cards to come</u> , he is the favorite to win the hand. This is a good general rule of thumb for NLHE.

In this particular case, with the flop you gave,

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is about 44 percent to win
J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is about 56 percent to win

You have $11,000 in the pot and it's $9,000 to call, which is 1.22-to-1. You're actually a 1.27-to-1 dog so this is pretty much a toss up (although mathematically you should fold - but I did some rounding off so I'm not 100%).

With the aces, you have the higher hand right at the second, but since he has 14 or more outs and two cards to come, he is slightly more likely than not to get one of the cards he needs to beat you.

[ QUOTE ]
Should I fold the best hand in certain situations?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're only ahead at the moment; you don't actually have the best hand at all and are more likely to lose your stack here than double up.

Consider this:

Player 1 holds: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Player 2 holds: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The KQ has nothing right now, but they'll still win 70 percent of the time, even though Player 1 paired his deuce. Saying Player 1 has the best hand would be a tragic mistake.

Hope this helps.

PokerEveryDay · #3 11-28-2006, 10:27 AM

In your example with 17 outs to break you I would fold knowing his hole cards since you can't improve if he/she hits.

ImBen · #4 11-28-2006, 05:21 PM

I hope those are hypothetical limits you're referring to. If not, site/screenname please.

NYWalker · #5 11-28-2006, 06:34 PM

This is why quite a few pros use suited connector calling big PF raise (often with position too) and crack big pocket pairs with big draw on the flop.

Gonso · #6 11-29-2006, 04:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I hope those are hypothetical limits you're referring to. If not, site/screenname please.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy made a legit post, even if it could have gone in a better forum. Why post crap like this?

gwhiz_612 · #7 12-01-2006, 06:54 PM

Thanks for the post gonso, I especially like your example with 72 against the QK. That is what I was getting at.

ImBen · #8 12-02-2006, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hope those are hypothetical limits you're referring to. If not, site/screenname please.

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy made a legit post, even if it could have gone in a better forum. Why post crap like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pardon me for having concern for his financial health.

Poker Plan · #9 12-02-2006, 08:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Consider this:

Player 1 holds: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Player 2 holds: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The KQ has nothing right now, but they'll still win 70 percent of the time, even though Player 1 paired his deuce.

Saying Player 1 has the best hand would be a tragic mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you tell me why? At this point in time, Player one DOES have the best hand- it's a statement of fact. The fact that his Outs / Non Outs ratio makes him an underdog by the end of the hand is a different issue.

Ian

AaronBrown · #10 12-02-2006, 12:55 PM

One other observation. If you don't choose to fold, you have to go all-in. The worst decision in these cases is to call. At least by going all-in you get paid if he doesn't hit; or bully him into giving up his chance to hit.

A common beginner mistake (and I'm not implying you're a beginner, just making a comment) is to call when uncertain, as when you have a pretty good hand but you're not sure it's going to be best. That's the worst time to call, when uncertain you should fold or raise. You can play good poker and never call, but you can't play good poker and always call.