Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eleven

[Performify]

Sorry these are really late... busy week on the road a couple days and then the big UFC last night. Won't have time for detailed writeups here, but picks posted for the record:

Last week:
1-2, +1.89u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Win on Tease of the Week, +3u.
Total for the week: +4.89u

YTD RESULTS:
14-24-4 on posted picks, -11.74 units (excludes teasers)
3-4-3 on Game of the Week, -4.25 units.
5-3 on Tease of the Week, +4.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.14 units

Dallas -1 -109 over Indy
Not the best line that was available on this game, by far, but that's the current so thats what I track against. Indy a huge favorite of the public, my system has Dallas winning this by a fieldgoal. My team is strongly built on the "need to win" factor and this is the definition of a disparity in need to win: Dallas has to have this game, Indy could care less. 27-24 Dallas. Game of the Week

Philly -13 +101 over Tennessee Titans
Philly is a game behind the Giants for the East, this is a must-win for them. Titans pass defense is struggling. Big day for McNabb, looking to put this game away early. Backdoor cover always a possibility but I have this as a big Eagles win. 28-13 Philly. Three unit play. Very close to being game of the week.

Chicago Bears -6 +101 over NY Jets
I have Chicago winning this by a touchdown, 24-17. Two unit play.

Panthers -6.5 +101 over St. Louis Rams
St. Louis is banged up on both sides of the ball. The Panthers are rolling and need this game. Panthers 24, St. Louis 17.

Tease of the Week: San Diego +2.5, Kansas City -9 (2-team, 6.5 point)
Teasing to San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5. Really hoped the Dallas line was going to move enough to be a tease, but didn't quite get there. KC should take Oakland but might not cover with Oak's renewed defensive prowess, and I really like the Chargers to keep the Denver game close if not win outright. Five units.

<ul type="square">
Summary of Posted Picks [*] Dallas -1 -109 : 5.45u to win 5u[*] Philly -13 +101 : 3u to win 3.03u[*] Bears -6 +101 : 2u to win 2.02u[*] Carolina -6.5 -101 : 1.01u to win 1u[*] Teaser: San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5 : 6u to win 5u (2-team, 6.5 point tease at -120)[/list]

[Lori]

Your writeup on the Dallas game gives me hope given my own arguments. I may be improving at this.

Just one observation, you seem to pick Philly (along with KC) very often. I don't even know how your Philly picks have done or even if this observation is accurate, but I just wonder if it's worth noting if a system throws out the same teams over and over. (Maybe you're overrating them being the implication, but there is also the possibility that the public underrates them)

Lori

[Performify]

interesting observation. I'm going to pull out my picked teams stats today and see how that count goes for the year, and probably take a look at the last two years as well.

[Performify]

One thing i will say : i do depend quite a bit on things like my own power rankings and evaluations of teams. So I'm usually going to end up with those teams that are in contention (need to win to make the playoffs/etc) and end up picking against teams that are in the bottom portion of the league. I think that's probably a factor why teams in my top third of the league tend to show up most frequently, as the capping inputs for my system are going to be weighted towards those "top" teams. But I'll take a look... thanks for bringing it up, Lori.

[Jordan]

dallas is +1.5 at bodog. i have quite a bit of dallas +1.5 /detroit +2 teaser.

[Performify]

So far this week:
3-1, +5.02u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Tease of the Week pending, 6u to win 5u on San Diego +9
Total for the week: +5.02u with 6u pending

YTD RESULTS:
17-25-4 on posted picks, -6.72 units (excludes teasers)
4-4-3 on Game of the Week, +0.75 units.
5-3 on Tease of the Week, +4.6 units, tease pending
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.14 units


<ul type="square">
Summary of Posted Picks [*] Dallas -1 -109 : 5.45u to win 5u : WIN +5u[*] Philly -13 +101 : 3u to win 3.03u : Loss -3u[*] Bears -6 +101 : 2u to win 2.02u : WIN +2.02u[*] Carolina -6.5 -101 : 1.01u to win 1u : WIN +1u[*] Teaser: San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5 : 6u to win 5u (2-team, 6.5 point tease at -120) : open[/list]
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Nice day, with only a loss on the Philly game where McNabb went down for the season early in the first quarter, which obviously affected that game quite a bit.

6u to win 5u pending on San Diego +9 on the tease of the week.

[MyTurn2Raise]

of course, I am ill and slept in today....jeez

nice week performify

[Performify]

Final update for the week:


Week Eleven Results:
3-1, +5.02u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Win on Tease of the Week +5u
Total for the week: +10.02u

YTD RESULTS:
17-25-4 on posted picks, -6.72 units (excludes teasers)
4-4-3 on Game of the Week, +0.75 units.
6-3 on Tease of the Week, +9.6 units, tease pending
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2.14 units


<ul type="square">
Summary of Posted Picks [*] Dallas -1 -109 : 5.45u to win 5u : WIN +5u[*] Philly -13 +101 : 3u to win 3.03u : Loss -3u[*] Bears -6 +101 : 2u to win 2.02u : WIN +2.02u[*] Carolina -6.5 -101 : 1.01u to win 1u : WIN +1u[*] Teaser: San Diego +9, Kansas City -2.5 : 6u to win 5u (2-team, 6.5 point tease at -120) : WIN +5u[/list]

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nice week performify

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Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Jibba]

Nice week.