Bayes question and book information

[MaxWeiss]

I am trying to find the example in one of Sklansky's books about how you know a guy has either aces or kings (equal probability) and then a ace flops, and now what's the new likelihood. I forget which book it is, and I'm not even sure if I stated that right. If somebody recognizes what I'm talking about, could you properly state the problem for me, and also which book it's in???

Thanks!!!

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am trying to find the example in one of Sklansky's books about how you know a guy has either aces or kings (equal probability) and then a ace flops, and now what's the new likelihood. I forget which book it is, and I'm not even sure if I stated that right. If somebody recognizes what I'm talking about, could you properly state the problem for me, and also which book it's in???

[/ QUOTE ]

HPFAP, 21st Century Edition, pp. 228-229 has an early position opponent who has either AA, KK, AKs, or AK. Since AA and KK are each 0.45%, and AKs and AK together are 1.2%, the odds are 1.2 to 0.9 = 4 to 3 that he does NOT hold a pair.

It does not mention an A flopping in this example, but if an A does flop, the odds that he has a pair would not change in this case because the probability of AA/KK and AKs/AK would both change by a factor of 3/4.

The next example shows an A and a T on the flop, and the opponent is equally likely to hold an A as a T. Then when another A falls on the turn, he becomes a 3 to 2 favorite to hold a T.