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#1
11-09-2006, 07:32 AM
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$16 PS button raise w/ A2o
Hi,
What do you think of my raise ? (note that I am the big stack + button) Do you call the min-reraise, here ? PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t3075) UTG+1 (t1170) CO (t2805) Hero (t3015) SB (t2200) BB (t1235) Preflop: Hero is in Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t455</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t710</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font> 
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#3
11-09-2006, 09:10 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
I don't like a push here. I am not even sure this is +$EV.
My reasonning is that (hand the blind reraise with <= hands that call a push). If this is the case then (raise > push). What do you think ?
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#4
11-09-2006, 10:22 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
I fold to the reraise. You took a stab and got played back at..time to shut it down.
Btw, I don't like the 455 raise..I prefer 2.5BB here better. Also, I don't make this move. Is this profitable for you?
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#5
11-09-2006, 10:31 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
OP,
I think the raise size is fine. Even though you have expressed odds to continue, I would just fold after sb's raise. Also note that "your big stack" only =15bbs. Without running numbers, I think that pushing here is really bad.
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#6
11-09-2006, 10:50 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I don't make this move. Is this profitable for you? [/ QUOTE ] My guess is yes but I do not have the numbers to prove it. Let's try a little maths : $EV (fold) = 21.39 (BB gets a walk) or 21.48 (SB shove / BB folds) so something like 21.45 looks OK. Obviously, the shove + call scenario is also possible but less likely. $EV (SB and BB) fold = 23.05 (+1.6) $EV (SB or BB reraise + I fold) = 20.10 (-1.35) $EV (SB or BB call) = ??? but let's say (1) I always lose the pot (2) I do not put any more chip in it so = 20.10 too. So if the blinds fold more than 1.35/(1.35+1.6) = 46% of the time then this should be profitable. Do they fold that much ? I think so here as : (1) I have them covered (2) none is totally desesperate (3) they have not proven to be especially lose + my hand is not good enough to put more chips in the pot anyway What do you think about this ?
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#8
11-10-2006, 07:23 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
I'd just open fold. I don't like raising here b/c if BB shoves often you're priced into calling off nearly half your stack w/ A2o.
Agree if I was raising though it'd be t500 and yeah I'd fold to his re-raise everytime here.
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#9
11-10-2006, 11:32 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
[ QUOTE ]
Everytime I try some maths, it seems that everybody runs away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It's probably because all of us here in the United States are confused by the pluralization of math.
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#10
11-10-2006, 11:38 AM
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Re: $16 PS button raise w/ A2o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Everytime I try some maths, it seems that everybody runs away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It's probably because all of us here in the United States are confused by the pluralization of math. [/ QUOTE ] Well english is not my first language sir. I try to write the best that I can, anyway. Thanks a lot for your help.
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