Fold 5th?

[dsaxton]

No reads. Should I fold this on 5th street, or was it correct to chase / call down?

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (13.00 SB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (8.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls (?)
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (11.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (14.50 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls (?)
Seat 6: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___folds

Total pot: (16.50 BB)

[Wahoo73]

Wow...this is a really tough hand! IMO, it's one of the toughest hands to analyze that I've seen posted here, and maybe that's why you haven't received any replies until now.

Although your focus is on Seat #6, I think perhaps the key(s) to knowing what you should do on 5th street and beyond is what Seats #5 and #7 may have and how they have acted on 3rd, 4th and 5th.

The first thing that strikes me is how Seat #7 cold calls three bets with T spades door card! Unless he's a complete idiot, would he do that with anything less than split Ts with an A kicker, or hi-card three flush or hi three straight? And then when Seat #5 calls two more bets with J diamonds door card after calling your initial raise on 3rd street, you have to ask the very same question about him that I just posed about Seat #7. The beauty of this for you is that it may indicate that either one or both of them have a Q and thus may lessen the likelihood that Seat #6 has split Qs.

So, given that premise, what else can you put Seat #6 on? The first thing that comes to my mind is pocket As. Beyond that there is nothing else that seems reasonable. So, at this point, I think you must conclude that he either has split Qs, has pocket As or (absolute worst-case) is rolled-up.

When Seat #6 just calls your bet on 4th street after catching T hearts it seems to indicate he's not rolled-up, now leaving you with just the split Qs or pocket As possibilities. Seat #5's calling you on 4th has to almost certainly mean that he's on a flush draw and is staying because his diamonds are 100% live, and seat #7's call while getting the T clubs is not unexpected if he's on a straight or flush draw, so the possibility still exists that he has a Q underneath.

Given all of this, when you catch the open As on 5th street, possess the high hand showing, and both Seats #6 and #7 improve as well, I think you should bet and be prepared to fold if either of them raises because there should be no doubt in their minds now that the absolute worst hand you could have is As over Ks. (In other words, if they are willing to raise you here with anything less than trips, then they are not the kind of players you want to be up against. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) Checking here gains no information for you at all because you can be certain that at least one of them is going to bet. IMO, if you do check, you might as well fold instead of calling three more bets to the river given your unlikelihood of improving. In short, I think check-calling down is the worst way to play 5th, 6th and 7th streets.

But hopefully you will post the results and probably tell all of us that your As over Ks beat Seat #6's As over Qs. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[PoorLawyer]

Now my math for this stuff is terrible, but 35 unseen cards on 5th and 3 of them make your hand. So that is 11.66 to 1 for your boat and you are getting 11.5 to 1 from the pot. Throw in the possibility that seat 6 is repping trips he doesn't have and its a call if it was heads up on 5th.

With the multiway pot, you are still good if you hit, but if you don't improve you now have to worry about seat 7 outdrawing you if you don't improve but would have beat seat 6. I still think I'd make the slim call.

On 6th you have to hate the 3rd spade, but since he didn't raise it you have to call. On the river I look him up after the drawing guy folds. It is tougher if he calls as he may be just going for the overcall knowing he has you beat if you don't get your full house, buit being unsure if seat 6 filled.

[Wahoo73]

[ QUOTE ]
Now my math for this stuff is terrible, but 35 unseen cards on 5th and 3 of them make your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This "sounds good if you say it fast," but I really think by 5th street hero is in a position where he has to discount his three outs...a K and two As...just like you do in HE because of the likelihood that at least one of the opponents is holding one or more of your outs. Although I did not specifically say this in my post, this was the point I was implying by going into so much detail about the possible holdings of the opponents, especially Seats #6 and #7.