NFL Week 8 Overlays

[rjp]

YTD: 33-29-2 (+0.87 units; ROI: 1.40%)

San Francisco 49ers +17 (-120)

Grossman should bounce back in this game, but 17 is way too many points.

Houston Texans/Tennessee Titans UNDER 42 (-105)
Jacksonville Jaguars/Philadelphia Eagles OVER 41.5 (-111)
Atlanta Falcons/Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 43 (-105)
St. Louis Rams/San Diego Chargers OVER 42 (-105)
New York Jets/Cleveland Browns OVER 36.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos UNDER 37 (+100)
Pittsburgh Steelers/Oakland Raiders OVER 38 (-105)

[rjp]

Oakland Raiders +9 (-119)

Oakland getting 9 at home is simply too much.

[MicroBob]

OAK caught my eye as well. I don't think they are as bad as their reputation and PIT can be pretty inconsistent.

[rjp]

Both teams might be starting backup QBs, and no Oakland isn't this bad.

[JJguy]

I already teased PITTS -2 and NYG -2.

I like INDY +2.5 too. input plz

I hate posting my picks here lol - every time I post, I lose. wtf. Every time I do not post, I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] seriously

[rjp]

Tennessee Titans -3 (-109)

Amazingly enough the Titans aren't favored by enough in this game. Houston played very well in a big win over Jacksonville, and now they face another division foe coming off a bye. The Titans have started to get things together behind rookie QB Young, and that should continue in this game. The Titans should be favored by ~6.5 in this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 (-110)

This line shot up quickly since it opened, and deservedly so. The Eagles were shocked by a 62 yard FG in Week 7, a feat that went well with the mistakes that put themselves in that position in the first place. They get Jacksonville coming off a bad loss to Houston Jacksonville has been hurt by injuries on defense, and haven't really played well other than the game against the Jets. Philadelphia should be favored by ~9.5 points in this matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)

The Bengals haven't really played all that bad recently, with the lone exception being the game against New England. The Falcons are an up and down team that's been hampered by injuries on the OL and DL, and their play has shown as such. The Bengals go to face Baltimore next week, but they shouldn't overlook the Falcons in this game, and they should be favored by ~6.5 points.

Green Bay Packers -3 (-115)

Arizona is a mess. The offensive coordinator issue will continue to be a distraction, and losing to the winless Raiders don't make things any easier. Green Bay is a bottom tier team, but they're not nearly as bad as Arizona.

New Orleans Saints -1 (-125)

Both teams come into this game off a bye, and Baltimore fired their offensive coordinator during the bye week. In the short term this will only help to distract the Ravens, though it might be the best long term solution for Baltimore. In this game, however, the Saints should win often enough to provide good value at this price.

St. Louis Rams +9.5 (-110)

The Rams were left with a nasty taste in their mouth heading into their bye, and they'll be looking to let out their frustration against the Chargers. San Diego won't be overlooking the Rams, as they took a tough beat to division foe KC in Week 7. These teams are closer in ability than this line would indicate. The Chargers should win, but odds are they don't do so by this many points.

Denver Broncos -1 (-124)

This is the game the media's been waiting for. They want to know if Denver's defense is "for real". Denver has played some teams with questionable offensive capability, but Denver has been able to time and time again shut their oponnent down. They likely won't hold the Colts to 3 or 7 points, but they should have a solid chance at getting their running game going, and they should win this game often enough to provide a good return at this price.

[MicroBob]

Packers game has already moved off the 3 and is up to 3.5.

Bengals and Rams lines are improving a little bit though.

I definitely like the Bengals as well.

I can't bring myself to like the Packers in their game even though they are clearly improving.

Possible AZ had a big mental letdown after their crazy game with Chicago and they just didn't let it go.
Now they get their wake-up call and get refocused perhaps and actually play decently??

IOW - I'm finding ways to not read too much into their OAK performance by making excuses for them.
OAK was a good pick for this game imo due to the chances that AZ just wouldn't be into it...which I think is what happened.

[rjp]

New England Patriots -2.5 (-104)
New England Patriots/Minnesota Vikings UNDER 38.5 (-105)

Early line movement with both the side and total present value with these plays. The Patriots opened as 3 point favorites, a pretty good number by my estimation. The move to 2.5, however, provides value with the Patriots. The Vikings will likely be more motivated for this game, but making these subjective adjustments still presents a positive expectation with the Patriots.

The total opened at 36.5 and has now jumped to 38.5. More often than not this is the type of movement you'll see for Monday night totals, and this game is no different. My number is 35.5, and the move to 38.5 crosses enough key numbers to provide a small edge with taking the UNDER in this situation. I don't figure this line moves much higher, if at all, and I'd only be upset with getting 38.5 now if I could get 40.5 later.

[vexel77]

I wouldnt touch that bengals falcons line with a barge pole after this week. Both teams are just too unpredictable. Atlantas play calling will be very interesting in this game. Do they give vick 30+ pass attempts again or do they try and run through a very weak bengals run defense. I just dont know and i dont think anyone can accurately say, except jim mora of course.

[rjp]

Ended up grabbing a win on MNF.

YTD: 34-29-2 (+1.76 units; ROI: 2.79%)

Kansas City Chiefs -260
Seattle Seahawks / Kansas City Chiefs OVER 38.5 (-110)

The Seahawks will be without M.H. for a few weeks, and backup QB Wallace will take his place. The Chiefs are playing fairly well recently, and that should continue in this game. There is value laying the 6 with the Chiefs, but more value lies with the money line. Adjusting the expected total points scored down for Seattle's QB situation still shows value with the OVER, and I've bet it as such.

New York Giants -420
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/New York Giants OVER 41 (-105)

The Giants are coming off a big win against the Cowboys, and the Bucs have amazingly won two straight. The Giants should be hefty favorites in this game, but there is no value with the point spread as high as it is. The money line, however, provides a nice expected return with the Giants in this matchup. The total for this game is a bit low, too, as this line should be ~48.5 by my estimation.

San Francisco 49ers/Chicago Bears OVER 42.5 (-110)

I'm always reminded of the wind situation in Chicago, so I put this bet off to see if I could get a better forecast. The line moved towards my line, as it opened at 41. The wind report seems fairly stable, so I'm going ahead and taking this now before it moves even more.