50/100 overall hand analysis

[xZExROx]

hey people,

I do not play this high (in fact i play 5/10) but this a hand of a friend of mine that has been discussed on another notice board...

sorry about the conversion - none of the hand converters worked so i had to do it myself

Seat 2: HERO($5217.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 1 ($2029 in chips)
Seat 4: villain 1 ($2490.50 in chips)
Seat 6: villain 2 ($8189 in chips)
Player 1: posts small blind $25
villain 1: posts big blind $50
benping16: sits out


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5h Ad]

villain 2 raises $50 to $100, HERO raises $50 to $150, Player 1 folds, villain 1 calls $100, villain 2: calls $50


*** FLOP *** [4c 3s Qh]
villain 1 checks, villain 2 checks, HERO checks


*** TURN *** [4c 3s Qh] [2h]
villain 1 checks, villain 2 checks, HERO bets $100, villain 1 raises $100 to $200, villain 2 raises $100 to $300, HERO raises $100 to $400, villain 1 calls $200, villain 2 calls $100


*** RIVER *** [4c 3s Qh 2h] [Jh]
villain 1: checks, villain 2 bets $100, HERO ?

My analysis of the hand initially is below.. how far off am i ? particularly interested in turn and river play as i realise preflop is a fold (at least i was sure it was)

fold preflop. unless bidhead is passive and u can win w/o showdown. (in that case i guess it doesn't matter what cards u have)

flop - after your aggression, i dont see how ur winning this pot without a c-bet (i do realise i free card is nice here but it shouts u have air so you are limiting urself to winning the pot on 4-7 outer. Very few people would check a monster here 3 handed.

Turn- u have near the nuts but due to two hearts u prob have to call villain 2's very scary check/3 bet as 56 is an unlikely holding and set/ flush draw combos are most likely...on the other hand ur hand isnt getting any stronger and u may be already behind ? is it a fold against sohero opponents? is capping correct here against two unknowns ?

River- against two opponents and considering the turn action this could be a fold in my opinion against non-maniac opponents (now the flush got there as well as the possibility either of them already had a better straight than u ?- especially seeing as u are not closing the action - a raise here would be absolute spewing of chips IMO (this was the original question)-

..or is the pot to big to fold ?

[MattSuspect]

This would be an absolutely terrible river fold.

[DeathDonkey]

Way closer to a raise than a fold on the river. Flop check is terrible after preflop play which is bad too unless the initial raiser is a complete maniac.

-DeathDonkey

[xZExROx]

DD, i totally agree with u on preflop and flop, but can u explain why it is closer to a river raise ... maybe it is because i am not used to the aggression of 50/100 but i just cant imagine (baring reads that they are maniacs) on this board how a riase is profitable vs two opponents ? if it is a raise, is it a raise/fold ?

thanks in advance [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[stinkypete]

villain 2 check/3-bet the turn. putting him on a flush draw here makes no sense. a set is most likely. a straight is less likely, but not impossible.

it's close between raising and calling. heads up i would raise for value, but there's another player who might overcall or might even have a better hand. on the other hand, he might call 2 with a worse hand.

for a 5/10 player, i'd recommend working your way up step by step and not worrying about 50/100 hands yet. you'll just confuse yourself with the aggression.

[antifish225]

Folding this would be near criminal - I would raise this almost always unless I had a really, really good read. (and even with a really, really, really good read I would not fold)

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this would be near criminal - I would raise this almost always unless I had a really, really good read. (and even with a really, really, really good read I would not fold)

[/ QUOTE ]

[DpR]

My thought was pretty easy river rasie.

[surfdoc]

Folding is not an option.

An argument can be made for calling and trying to get an overcall. This allows you to win the same amount as a raise and avoid losing the max if you are behind and get 3 bet and can't find the muck because the pot is too big and the villian is unknown.

[DcifrThs]

i'll just say to echo the thoughts so far villian 2 has a flush here about 0.05% of the time...if that.

the other guy called 2 cold out of the blinds so 56 is unlikely. the other A5 is also unlikely but less so.

while QQ/KK/AA are extremely unliekly i a 3way pot, 22/33/44 are very much in all their ranges. A5 from their perspective should NOT be a large portion of the hero's range (until hero raises the river...even then it should be QQ > A5 despite combinatoric possibilities to the contrary unless original raiser pf is a freaking maniac and hero can isolate fairly successfully).

the real question is what does villian 1 have? i think if he rivered a flush given the turn action he'd bet to get possibly 3 or 4 bets in here. villian 1 is the only person imo that can have the flush (c'r a pf 3bettor after calling 2 cold pf w/ a hand like ATs... not a good play but people make it..>READS HERE WOULD HELP A LOT). but once he checks the river, seeing as hero put in the last raise on the turn, it doesn't seem smart to check the best hand b/c most likely it'll go check bet raise or check check bet and in either case you're shutting out the player in between whereas if it goes bet call raise you get more money with far more regularity (check check bet is most likely scenario)

so flush is unlikely for villian 1 and villian 2. that means that a flush draw ont he turn was unlikely for villian 1 and villian 2. but they were BOTH willing to put in 4 bets. looks like set over set or set vs. possibly the other A5 or poorly played 2 pair (really really really poorly played on almost all streets lol). set vs. set is by far imo the most likely. and sets will make crying calls here for 2 bets so so so so so much more than hero'll get check 3 bet by the flush or 65.

so that said, river raise >> river call >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t; >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> river fold.

Barron