10/180 AA on Dangerous Flop

Jeff76 · #1 10-18-2006, 01:49 PM

This was from the Monday night challenge, so I was multi-tabling and having difficutly observing opponents. So no reads. How often am I good here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 (t4560)
MP1 (t1540)
Hero (t1770)
CO (t1330)
Button (t1255)
SB (t1945)
BB (t1760)
UTG (t1250)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t80, 2 folds, SB raises to t140, BB calls t120, Hero raises to t500, SB calls t360, BB calls t360.

Flop: (t1500) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets t1445 (All-In), BB calls t1260 (All-In), Hero ????

AceLuby · #2 10-18-2006, 03:04 PM

You're looking at at a set, nut flush draw, made flush, or overpair w/ flush draw. You have only an overpair and no draw. I'm ditching this roughly 100% of the time readless. Terrible flop.

mornelth · #3 10-18-2006, 03:05 PM

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You're looking at at a set, nut flush draw, made flush, or overpair w/ flush draw. You have only an overpair and no draw. I'm ditching this roughly 100% of the time readless. Terrible flop.

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Yeah, insta-call with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], fold otherwise.

ASPoker8 · #4 10-18-2006, 03:05 PM

Fold. This is the worst possible flop... especially with a raise/caller who may very well have a set here.

mattmcegg · #5 10-18-2006, 03:06 PM

Yea, nasty hand. Must fold. Your for sure dead to 1, which might not even give you the winning hand.

durkahdurkah · #6 10-18-2006, 03:11 PM

Absolutely have to fold aces here.

God that sucks when that has to happen lol

alanbrown · #7 10-18-2006, 03:41 PM

Please spare me the flaming death, but I'm going to put forward a case for calling.

The only made flushes that could possibly be here are KQ and AK of spades. The flop rules out all other suited connectors as realistic dangers. 99 and 77 would probably have folded to your pre-flop re-raise. JJ would probably have called and winced while he did so. So - the danger hands are AK, AQ and KQ of spades. What other hands might have behaved that way pre-flop?

QQ might (KK would definitely re-raise), and there's a good chance it'd push at that flop. Especially with a spade. Also Any other AK and possibly AQ. They would also have a go at that flop if they had a spade. AJs? Hopefully not!

What about what their bets say? The first all-in says he probably hasn't got the made flush. Even less likey to have the nut flush. The second all-in is likely to realize that and be putting pressure on you by calling. He could very well be thinking that he'll win if another spade doesn't come up and by calling the all-in is going to force you to fold.

I like that play a lot. QQ should probably make that call even without a spade. However, it's likely that they're both on a spade draw. SB has QQ (maybe! it was a weak PF re-raise with QQ) and BB has AK. But you've got 'em both if there's no spade and you're getting 3:1 on you money. I call here and puke when one of 'em turns JJ.

AceLuby · #8 10-18-2006, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Please spare me the flaming death, but I'm going to put forward a case for calling.

The only made flushes that could possibly be here are KQ and AK of spades. The flop rules out all other suited connectors as realistic dangers. 99 and 77 would probably have folded to your pre-flop re-raise. JJ would probably have called and winced while he did so. So - the danger hands are AK, AQ and KQ of spades. What other hands might have behaved that way pre-flop?

QQ might (KK would definitely re-raise), and there's a good chance it'd push at that flop. Especially with a spade. Also Any other AK and possibly AQ. They would also have a go at that flop if they had a spade. AJs? Hopefully not!

What about what their bets say? The first all-in says he probably hasn't got the made flush. Even less likey to have the nut flush. The second all-in is likely to realize that and be putting pressure on you by calling. He could very well be thinking that he'll win if another spade doesn't come up and by calling the all-in is going to force you to fold.

I like that play a lot. QQ should probably make that call even without a spade. However, it's likely that they're both on a spade draw. SB has QQ (maybe! it was a weak PF re-raise with QQ) and BB has AK. But you've got 'em both if there's no spade and you're getting 3:1 on you money. I call here and puke when one of 'em turns JJ.

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Looking for perfect situations for a call is a good way to go busto. You've only listed hands that we are ahead of. KQ,AQ,AK of spades all beat us, any set beats us (and I would venture to say that both would call given the action w/ 77 or 99), and we have a draw to one card w/ two cards to go, an AI, and a call. Pokerstove reasonable ranges and I'm sure we are not a favorite here. If we had a spade, sure easy call, but as is, we can't call here. So many cards can kill us if we're ahead and only one card helps us if we're behind (and sometimes we need runner runner). Oh and the AI is a standard bet and given the PF action could EASILY be a made flush.

Marc M · #9 10-18-2006, 04:03 PM

I'd put the SB on QQ or KK. The BB I'd be a bit afraid of, but hopefully he has AJ or something. I'd have to call.

FortunaMaximus · #10 10-18-2006, 04:22 PM

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Absolutely have to fold aces here.

God that rocks when you learn that has to happen lol

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Well. All you got is best possible pair anyways.