NFL/College Pleasers

Jordan · #1 10-20-2006, 01:57 AM

Can these things have any value? instead of getting points on your side you give them up. the payouts are very attractive. i suppose they must be a sucker bet if you throw them at random games. initially the thought of pleasing from +3 to -3 strikes me as potentially having value. i'd guess this range of outcomes might have a small enough probability that these might work.

a two team pleaser pays out at +600 on wsex. this means that each team involved would have to cover the pleased line 37.8% to break even. anybody have any idea how often +3 underdogs cover win by more than 3?

edit to add college to title

Thremp · #2 10-20-2006, 02:03 AM

Hrm. It seems that pleasers should be either huge lines not through 3 or 7.

Right? Like teaser strat except completly backward?

Jordan · #3 10-20-2006, 02:05 AM

yeah... that's why i thought crossing the 0 might be a good thing... but you're right about the huge lines.

Thremp · #4 10-20-2006, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah... that's why i thought crossing the 0 might be a good thing... but you're right about the huge lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd please anything 10+ more than likely if I was going to.

10<

Maybe through 0? from +3 to -3... Seems strange. Maybe look at a datebase?

Jordan · #5 10-20-2006, 02:13 AM

well wong teasers depend on crossing key numbers (3,7,10, etc). if we could find spreads where pleasing crossed as few of these key numbers as possible maybe we would have a profitable situation. we'd need to find spreads where giving up 6 extra points doesn't change the probability of the outcome by too much...

Jordan · #6 10-20-2006, 02:19 AM

wow... a cool thought just hit me. college football pleasers are allowed too.

the very reason that teasers aren't profitable in college ball might make pleasers _profitable_ in college ball. (wide spread of outcomes) in fact i don't know how pleasing a +35 dog in college ball could possibly be -EV. right???

Artdogg · #7 10-20-2006, 02:28 AM

i did some calculations on crossing the 0 in pleasers, pleasing 2 3 point dogs is actually less profitable then parlaying 2 dog moneylines if i remember correctly, making them super -EV for that. The thing I havent tested is massive favorites and massive dogs, where the value of each point starts to diminish. Im guessing if theres any value in pleasers it would be in that. Anyone know of any sites that allows these with totals?

Jordan · #8 10-20-2006, 02:34 AM

you're right about crossing the 0. i'm still optimistic about the massive dogs and favorites though. WSEX appears to allow pleasers on all of their lines.

fnurt · #9 10-20-2006, 02:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wow... a cool thought just hit me. college football pleasers are allowed too.

the very reason that teasers aren't profitable in college ball might make pleasers _profitable_ in college ball. (wide spread of outcomes) in fact i don't know how pleasing a +35 dog in college ball could possibly be -EV. right???

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your general statement is right. You'd still prefer it if there was a narrow range of likely outcomes, it's just that your strategy would be to stay away from that range, rather than to tease across it. For example, if all outcomes were equally likely, there would be no numbers at all that would be especially attractive to bet.

Jordan · #10 10-20-2006, 02:45 AM

i think i disagree. while it would be nice to have a narrow range of outcomes that we can stay away from with a pleaser. i also think that a wide range of outcomes can create a profitable pleaser. consider a 50 point favorite. for the sake of argument assume they never lose. now say this team has an equal chance of scoring anything between 1 point more and 100 points more than their opponent. if i please from -50 to -56 i'm making a profitable bet since they'll cover ~44% of the time.