NL50 set on scary board

NSchandler · #1 10-11-2006, 09:56 PM

No reliable reads, comments on every street appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($67.50)
Hero ($82.04)
SB ($11.11)
BB ($60.20)
UTG ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, MP raises to $2.5, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($5.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($11.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $7, Hero calls $7.

River: ($25.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP calls $55 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $80.75

shoxbb6 · #2 10-11-2006, 10:53 PM

I like a reraise preflop.

Not raising this flop is a big mistake, way too many draws out there and you need to protect your hand. I prefer a raise to 17-18.

Turn and river look alright.

kurto · #3 10-11-2006, 11:03 PM

you know... I have to admit this is just another one of those situations that just suck. I honestly go back and forth on how to play it.

on the one hand... ak is one of the most common raised hand. (at least in full ring) There's already 3 straights. A lot of raising hands hit that flop (though many not as strong as you)

Top it off... you have any ace, king, 9 or 8 and a bunch of clubs can be troublesome (granted not as scary headsup)

Sometimes i like a raise because the flop can be as scary for them as for you. sometimes I play it the same as you. Though that turn is brutal too...

Pokey · #4 10-11-2006, 11:08 PM

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I like a reraise preflop.

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I tend to agree. Your hand plays best heads-up, and since you're safely ahead of villain's range you should push your advantage. It also buys you folding equity, making cards that could scare you into scare cards for your opponent instead. I'd probably make it $8 to go.

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Not raising this flop is a big mistake, way too many draws out there and you need to protect your hand. I prefer a raise to 17-18.

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I also agree that raising is a good choice on the flop, but I don't think it should be that large. After your call, there's just under $12 in the pot; if you raise to $12 that's a very solid 3/4ths-pot raise. I'd be willing to go as high as $15, but I'm really not wanting to lose my opponent, here.

As played, I'd probably raise the turn: it's time to take advantage of the scare card. If you raise to $20, villain is going to fold quite often, and is often going to give you a free showdown if you want it. If villain three-bets all-in, you've got to swear and fold (you'd lack the pot odds to call the raise), and that sucks, but at least you KNOW you were beaten.

As played, you really have no idea if you're ahead or behind on the river, but does that play REALLY look like a K? Why would villain push, knowing that the only hand you'd call with is the split hands? To me, this whole hand stinks of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], possibly with an A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Villain is frustrated by the river and pushing to force you off a better hand. Of course, you have to be right about 40% of the time for this to be a +EV call, but I'd say that's a safe bet. The chances that villain has two pair or less are just too strong to pass up, here, especially given how passively you've played the hand.

I puke and call this river bet, but I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] variance.

NSchandler · #5 10-12-2006, 02:28 AM

Yeah raising pf is a no-brainer.

FWIW, I played this hand as passively as I did largely because of the size of the stacks. With smaller stacks, I'll push and pray here at some point, but with 130BB stacks I'm not going to be getting the odds to call an AI if I raise, and I really want to see the river with this hand.

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As played, I'd probably raise the turn: it's time to take advantage of the scare card. If you raise to $20, villain is going to fold quite often, and is often going to give you a free showdown if you want it. If villain three-bets all-in, you've got to swear and fold (you'd lack the pot odds to call the raise), and that sucks, but at least you KNOW you were beaten.

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I don't get this. What hands will he fold that I want him to fold? Raising here will only scare off hands that are drawing slim or dead to me.

And getting 3-bet AI really really sucks. Like you said, I'm not getting the odds to call, and so I'm giving up 10 outs in a huge pot. To me, the potential to get raised off my hand here eliminates a raise on the turn as a possibility.

Thinking about it now, this is much the same logic for not raising the flop, or at least what I was thinking during the hand. If I fill up and he has a straight, I can stack him nearly every time, so if I give him the chance to push me off this hand I'm losing quite a bit in doing so.

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I puke and call this river bet

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When I posted this hand, I thought the river was the easiest street (other than pf). After reading the responses and thinking about it some more, I've somehow convinced myself that calling the flop and the turn are the right moves, but now I'm not sure how clear it was I should have folded the river. You're right, I'm not sure this is a K anymore. Hmmmm, I'm bad at dealing with oversized bets.

jskinn04 · #6 10-12-2006, 02:45 AM

I really like how you played the hand, except for preflop. On the flop, raising is bad b/c AK looms large in his range and raising won't help to define your hand because the draw hands call too. You won't know on the turn what to do based on the flop action if you raise. Keep the pot small and smooth call. JJJ is way strong enough to want to go to showdown, but getting to showdown would be my number one concern. The turn is a horrible card. Raising folds most worse hands and never folds a better one. Calling for the boat value makes sense. Folding the river is easy for the reasons explained below.

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As played, you really have no idea if you're ahead or behind on the river, but does that play REALLY look like a K? Why would villain push, knowing that the only hand you'd call with is the split hands? To me, this whole hand stinks of , possibly with an A. Villain is frustrated by the river and pushing to force you off a better hand. Of course, you have to be right about 40% of the time for this to be a +EV call, but I'd say that's a safe bet. The chances that villain has two pair or less are just too strong to pass up, here, especially given how passively you've played the hand.

I puke and call this river bet, but I variance.

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I really disagree with calling the river. The reason is clear after putting Hero on a range through the villain's eyes. The smooth call pre could really mean a lot of hands. The call on the flop means, something, and kings are a large part of a calling range on that flop. The turn gives any king the pure nuts.... Villain still shoves the river into what is Hero's very likely one-card nuts. I think he has the king always. I just can't imagine that he puts Hero on JJ and is bluffing with AQ. I can't ever give a non-pro that kind of credit and ther's no reason to do so. More likely he's hoping you're a sucker w/ two pairs and want to pay him off. I'd shove the river with a king there.

Sir Winalot · #7 10-12-2006, 02:46 AM

Raise preflop and flop. As played I fold river too.

Freelancer · #8 10-12-2006, 09:07 AM

Raise preflop and flop. Preflop I want it headsup (as pokey said) and it also defines villains hand better. On the flop you have to raise since there are a ton of possible draws he's calling with and the only hands beating you are QQ and AK. The turn really sucks I like a call here and try to boat up. On the river I always thought a fold is standard, I can't see villain bluffing here often enough (any hand but a nut straight is a bluff on this board).

Pokey · #9 10-12-2006, 06:05 PM

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I don't get this. What hands will he fold that I want him to fold? Raising here will only scare off hands that are drawing slim or dead to me.

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The goal of a turn raise isn't to force out stronger hands or get called by weaker hands; it's to avoid this:

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River: ($25.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP calls $55 (All-In)

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This is one of those situations where a $20 bet on the turn can (a) buy you a cheap river with a hand you want to see to the end, (b) buy you tons of deception if you get called by a K and boat up on the river, and (c) let you know for sure that you're beaten if you're beaten, so that you can make an easy decision on the turn rather than a hard (and potentially wrong) one on the river.

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And getting 3-bet AI really really sucks. Like you said, I'm not getting the odds to call, and so I'm giving up 10 outs in a huge pot. To me, the potential to get raised off my hand here eliminates a raise on the turn as a possibility.

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I just really dislike playing fit-or-fold with a flopped set. That's a very timid line, and we lose tons of value if we just wait for the absolute nuts before we start playing the game. Unless villain has a K, that turn card is going to scare him, either into folding or into shutting down and giving you a free card. If he DOES have a K, this play loses an extra $13, but we could easily lose that much or more to a smallish river bet. Personally, I'm paying off the all-in river bet, so the $13 on the turn saves me a potential $40 on the river when I miss and call.

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If I fill up and he has a straight, I can stack him nearly every time, so if I give him the chance to push me off this hand I'm losing quite a bit in doing so.

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Yes, but playing it timidly gives him the opportunity to push you off your hand even WITHOUT the straight. Your play wins money only when you hit your full house; my play wins money whenever villain doesn't have a straight. The odds of you hitting a full house are about 1/3rd. The odds that villain does not have a straight are usually much higher than that. It's playing the percentages -- risky, sure, but profitable in the long run.

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Hmmmm, I'm bad at dealing with oversized bets.

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Everybody is, mostly because every oversized bet means something different. I'm not saying you're ahead when you call this river. I'm not even saying you're ahead half the time. I'm just saying that I believe you're ahead more than 40% of the time. It's probably a thin call, but I make it anyways.

robinmbuk · #10 10-12-2006, 06:26 PM

You have to either raise or fold on the flop. The only trouble with raising is that if he does hold AK and therefore broadway, he may just figure your not raising with a flush draw and decide to just flat call you. Also someone with AQ might just think your bluffing by represnting the straight, and rerasie you. This is where reads would help. I'd reraise to ~$8, and probably fold to a big reraise. Note this would cost you less money than the way you played it if he reraised your flop raise.