(LC) How to...big pairs on 3rd at low limits

[ChuckyB]

1/2 Stud, 25c ante, 50c bring-in (Crypto)

4th to act with (AK)A. There's the bring in and a caller before me. Based on how things are going, if I raise I expect two more callers and then the bring-in and limper to call.

I'd like to knock a few players out, but just like low-limit holdem, they probably aren't going. In low-limit holdem I'll raise anyway. Should I be doing the same in stud?

Would anything change with Stars' 10c ante?

[dandy_don]

The big ante ($.25) may create pot odds on 3rd where calling hands that typically shouldn't be called in a tighter structured game (i.e. Stars $1/$2 having a $.10 ante) become decent calls for you opponents, even with you representing A's.

Pairs nearly always require small numbers of opponents--you will have to do whatever it takes to eliminate players early in the hand. This is where paying attention to the play of your opponents is key (as I write this while in a hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). If you can't lose 'em, often it's best to fold even with the best hand. A's would be tough to fold, but against 4 or 5 players you know that are going to the later streets regardless of what they have, it's often the best play.

From K. Othmer's 7CSP book (we've got to get a book reading going in this forum related to stud) 40% of the time (39.9% actually) your 3rd street pairs will go unimproved. 42.1% of the time you'll hit your 2nd pair and 18% of the time will you do better than 2 pair when beginning with a pair on 3rd.

There is also a section in 7CSFAP on this subject--something like "folding with the best hand".

dandy

[adanthar]

Open folding AKA on third is an interesting strategy that I strongly suggest everyone do.

Oh, do it in hold'em, too.

[Bartholow]

Agreed.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
Open folding AKA on third is an interesting strategy that I strongly suggest everyone do.

Oh, do it in hold'em, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Open folding was not my point--the point I was attempting to make was after you have attempted to eliminte players with a pair by raising and/or re-raising and 4 or 5 still go along for the ride (on later streets), then ...

[dandy_don]

I didn't illustrate it properly, but playing around with twodimes, this is kind of what I had in mind when thinking through the original response...

On 4th, even with the AKA discussed above, a gut shot has similar chance of winning as the A's have in a 5 handed pot. Of course, the typical low limit hand is not going to have all 4 opponents with this many draws.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2125512
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ac ks ah 5h - 5c 6h 7s 9s - jd th 9c qs - 4d 4h qc kh - qh 2h 3h 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ac Ah 5h 87413 17.48 412565 82.51 22 0.00 0.175
9s 7s 5c 6h 79627 15.93 420366 84.07 7 0.00 0.159
Qs 9c Jd Th 161110 32.22 338657 67.73 233 0.05 0.322
Qc 4d Kh 4h 50881 10.18 448895 89.78 224 0.04 0.102
Qh 7h 3h 2h 120722 24.14 379270 75.85 8 0.00 0.241

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't illustrate it properly, but playing around with twodimes, this is kind of what I had in mind when thinking through the original response...

On 4th, even with the AKA discussed above, a gut shot has similar chance of winning as the A's have in a 5 handed pot. Of course, the typical low limit hand is not going to have all 4 opponents with this many draws.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2125512
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ac ks ah 5h - 5c 6h 7s 9s - jd th 9c qs - 4d 4h qc kh - qh 2h 3h 7h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ac Ah 5h 87413 17.48 412565 82.51 22 0.00 0.175
9s 7s 5c 6h 79627 15.93 420366 84.07 7 0.00 0.159
Qs 9c Jd Th 161110 32.22 338657 67.73 233 0.05 0.322
Qc 4d Kh 4h 50881 10.18 448895 89.78 224 0.04 0.102
Qh 7h 3h 2h 120722 24.14 379270 75.85 8 0.00 0.241

[/ QUOTE ]

Well as you say, you arent often against this many people with that good of a draw each. That being said, you will typically have enough equity here to continue on as you will win roughly 20% of the time and are putting in 20% of the money.

[RainierBob]

The discussion in 7CSAP is in the section on loose games. It talks about how big pairs are weakened in games when raises do not drive out many (any) callers. Mentions the importance of additional values such as a 2 flush. Without extra values, many times limp if you expect many callers and evaluate street by street.

In your example of AKA, lks like a raise is in order on 3rd, certainly if you have 2 flush, but will need to keep a careful eye out as hand develops. If no improvement by 5th and still many hands in pot, may need to check/fold. But potential for very nice pot if you do improve, no danger cards appear, and you carry all those hands to the end.

[Tha Stunna]

Check fold aces on 5th? Wow.
Hands by themselves mean almost nothing if you don't see any scare cards and they are loose.
You have the best two pair draw, and unlike other pairs, there aren't singleton aces around to ruin your pair.
Are naked aces going to win? Almost certainly not. A 4 straight is not going to win unimproved, but you'd still play it. Unless someone hits trips, aces up is the same as a small straight.

If raising will drive out really bad unpaired hands in an already multiway pot, then there's a case that you shouldn't do it. Otherwise, you're thinking on tilt.

Also, "folding with the best hand" is based on your hand being dead. With presumably live aces, folding would be crazy without some scary cards. With 2 aces dead in a very multiway pot, that's another story.

[RainierBob]

I put this somewhat too strongly. But I wld check 5th unimproved and evaluate action. If bet into, I'd have to look at things like how live my kickers were, how many had called the bet when it got to me, how many yet to act, and how live/threatening the other board(s). Decision cld often be a fold.