Waiting for a safe river

[Knet]

I don't run into this situation online much, but when I play live at my local casino there is no cap on the 10/20 NL game so the stacks are usually much deeper.

I know that there are plenty of situations where it is correct to wait for a safe turn card before you make your push, but is it ever correct to wait for a safe river card?

Example:

Effective stacks are $4000 and you open in LP to $80 with 52s and get one caller from the blind. The flop comes A43r, you bet $120 and get called.

Turn bring a 9 completing the rainbow, you bet $300 and he makes it $1000 to go. At this point you are almost certain the villian flopped a set bc he would 3 bet OOP with a strong ace and fold almost all other hands with an ace. Caling would have about 120 BBs in the pot (leaving 140 behind for each).

Is it always correct to 3 bet him here? If I started the hand with 100BBs then its an auto-push bc I don't have much left. Howver if we are deeper things change a bit. This is a pretty dry board so the river will most likely not slow him down, and since there is always a chance the villian is running a bluff we can call and let him continue. How do you play a hand like this? How does your decision change if:

Effective stack is 300BB?
Effective stack is 500BB?
You are OOP?
If there is 2 of one suit on the board?

I threw in the last one bc the river has more "scare card" potential.

I know I'm a new poster so sorry if this question is bad/dumb etc. This is just something that I have been struggling with since I started playing live more, online the effective stacks are usally 100BBs so when a rare hand like this occurs (dry board, hidden hand, against a easily readable player) its even rarer to happen when the stacks are deep. It just seems that there times you should wait til the river to make a big bet and get 100% equity instead of 75% equity on the turn

Thanks for any comments.

[Get_better_Baris]

i play uncapped games also so maybe i can help you with this one. you have to be 100% sure(you know how he plays) he will fire again even if there are not many scare cards that can possibly come. if u r 100% sure then just call raise river on occ.(this goes for 300 and 500bb esp when he is oop).it is a solid play sometimes, only if u r sure he doesn't bluff in that spot or value bet a worst hand when the board pairs and now u have to fold.
now if the board gets a backdoor draw on it just get it in there or 3 bet.He will call everytime with a set. its a good trap play if the board is good and the bet he has to put out on river would basically have him call a mini raise to get all in. if you were super deeper 3 bet turn everytime no matter what. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

p.s. this should not be your standard play tho. but it can be used sometimes esp when u r not the pfr and r in position.in this spot tho when u raise 52 and flop a str8 against a set that thinks u have something else, reraise turn.

[illuminati]

If you are "almost certain" he flopped a set then get it in as opposed to having to guess if the river pairs. People don't fold sets on this type of board. Any time you question getting it in with the pure nuts it sounds like you are playing out of your bankroll/scared.

[Knet]

Not out of my bankroll at all. To me it comes down to getting it in on the turn when I have 75% equity or waiting to see the river when I would have 100% equity. It seems that there has to be some point where waiting is the correct play.

Obviously a lot of variables have to be there in order to consider this (hidden hand, deep stacks, not many scare cards, good reads, etc). I had a hand like this happen last night and I just called, the river paired the board and I check/folded. We have enough friendly history together that he showed his set of 4s.

I was happy with the way I played the hand until I started driving home. I kept telling myself "it can't be wrong to get all your money in as a 3-1 favorite," but then I thought what would have happened if paint card hit. He bets I go all in he calls pretty much every time in that situation.

If I can avoid putting in $X until I'm 100% instead of 75% I should do that, right? I think this is the same concept of pushing the turn card hard when you think your opponent has a big draw, if you push the flop your opponent makes an easy call. Am I wrong in thinking this way?

[Get_better_Baris]

Your logic is 100% correct if the all those factors are in place. Perfect read,stacks that if they bet the river have to call all in,hidden hand and great board.The line risk minium monies for max value. Anything that can give you a huge reward vs mini. risk is good in my book.but there are 9 scare card for him(ace,5,2) that will hit the river 1 outa 4.8 so its close to your equity edge on the turn. But all in all looks like a solid play here since u r in position.