flopped top set OOP. vs bad LAG

matrix · #1 09-30-2006, 08:14 PM

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $33.62
CO: $78.50
Button: $1.50
Hero: $32.75
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls $0.25 (pot was $0.35), Button calls $0.25 (pot was $0.6), Hero raises to $1.6, BB folds, CO calls $1.35 (pot was $2.25), Button folds.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3.7, 2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO calls $3 (pot was $6.7).

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($9.7, 2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises to $14 Hero ???

villain is 56/13/3

he isn't raising the turn without a great hand - but wtf has he hit ???

about 20 hands or so ago this happened...

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.05
CO: $12.48
Hero: $30.75
SB: $33.82
BB: $63.92

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls $0.25 (pot was $0.35), CO folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $1 (pot was $1.85), UTG folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.85, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.6, BB calls $2.6 (pot was $5.45).

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8.05, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5 (pot was $13.05).

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($18.05, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: $18.05
BB shows 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

which earned him a space on my buddylist...

auto-poooooosh turn? or call and hope to improve?

Nick C · #2 09-30-2006, 08:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he isn't raising the turn without a great hand - but wtf has he hit ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. It could be a worse set. Unless it's 53, you are ahead, and even as loose as he is, I'd imagine he's playing 53 only if it's suited, if even then. I'm thinking the combos are in your favor.

You might as well push, right?

Antinome · #3 09-30-2006, 08:52 PM

I can't help but notice that what remains in your stack is a convenient size for making a bet that will probably be called.

Sweet.

There are far too many other things he could have to be worried.

Shaddux · #4 09-30-2006, 10:02 PM

shove

Nuprin · #5 09-30-2006, 10:07 PM

I push - if he played 53, so be it, you'll get his money eventually if he keeps playing like that, and besides, you have outs if he really does have it

I think you see AK, 2 pr, or 2 hearts here more than not.

gimmetheloot · #6 09-30-2006, 10:21 PM

Matrix this cant be serious right?

Auto push, you have 13$ left in a huge pot.

Bonesy · #7 09-30-2006, 10:57 PM

Who has the best hand here? He may have 53s, but really that is the only hand I can put him on that even he would play that way, that you are behind. I'm thinking it is a cheezy two pair he hit or a slow played lower set. In his mind, he is far ahead of everything you my have except for KK's. Push away. You still have outs if you are wrong.

matrix · #8 09-30-2006, 11:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't help but notice that what remains in your stack is a convenient size for making a bet that will probably be called.

[/ QUOTE ]

turn bet size is designed to make sure the pot on the river is big enough for me to push all-in without overbetting.

loot:

your math is out dude I have $21 left in a huge pot. (not that it makes THAT much of a difference)

Board: Kh 6h 2c 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 22.7273 % 22.73% 00.00% { KcKd }
Hand 2: 77.2727 % 77.27% 00.00% { 53o }

I'd never put villain on 53 normally after calling a pfr but that previous hand got me thinking along those lines and I'm 70% sure at this point that he has 53 ...

Spechel EDD · #9 09-30-2006, 11:09 PM

Raise to a point where you have a cent left over and he will spite raise you all in. Max value achieved.

Bonesy · #10 09-30-2006, 11:22 PM

His range is far bigger than 53s here given his LAG status. I do believe he can beat AA's and wants a call. I just don't think you can be that sure of his holding and you have a 10 out redraw. He may well have the 53 and that's crappy luck for you but if I'm gonna fold a hand like this, it would be to a far nittier player than him.