3 barrel against unknown?

[sharpie]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (6.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

[Redeye]

My typical rule of thumb has been that I don't 3 barrel in a situation like this if ace high is the only had that beats me. I think against the typical opponent, if he has made it this far he usually has a hand on a board like this, and if he doesn't, and did make it this far with ace high, is usually calling. Without the K river, I would like it.

[Unguarded]

After getting called on this dry flop, I feel like our best chance to win the pot (and conveniently, the cheapest!) is to take the free turn card and hit. We will pair or catch a flush 33% of the time, and he is rarely folding the turn (sometimes C/Ring). As played, I don't think you are folding out a better hand on the river often enough to bluff.

[Mossberg]

[ QUOTE ]
After getting called on this dry flop, I feel like our best chance to win the pot (and conveniently, the cheapest!) is to take the free turn card and hit. We will pair or catch a flush 33% of the time, and he is rarely folding the turn (sometimes C/Ring). As played, I don't think you are folding out a better hand on the river often enough to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. I agree with all that.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

After getting called on this dry flop, I feel like our best chance to win the pot (and conveniently, the cheapest!) is to take the free turn card and hit. We will pair or catch a flush 33% of the time, and he is rarely folding the turn (sometimes C/Ring). As played, I don't think you are folding out a better hand on the river often enough to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. I agree with all that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you know the remaining villian is a habitual flop peeler then I also agree with a turn check here. However, there are a lot of donkeys out there that will peel very light on rag flops. Against these guys, you have to keep firing the turn.

[___]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After getting called on this dry flop, I feel like our best chance to win the pot (and conveniently, the cheapest!) is to take the free turn card and hit. We will pair or catch a flush 33% of the time, and he is rarely folding the turn (sometimes C/Ring). As played, I don't think you are folding out a better hand on the river often enough to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post. I agree with all that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Third vote - I nearly grunched and said the same thing. This flop is very dry, so unless villain is prone to calling you with worse hands than queen high you should avail yourself of the free card.

Your huge combo draw is worthless on the river, so probably check instead of value betting.

I think the most common thing that I say in replying to hand posts in this forum is that no one is folding at short handed LHE. This makes bets with a strong unimproved ace good on many flops/turns because people are willing to peel lightly. Your hand value drops sharply with a mere queen though, so you aren't often charging draws or worse high cards in this case - you're giving away chips when you could be stealing them with a free card.

I know that experienced players often get in the habit of always betting (and it's a good default play), but finding checks in the right spots can increase your winrate significantly. Let's say a chance to check the turn behind like this comes up every 500 hands (I see it in some review sessions, but not all of them, which is how I picked this number) and that checking has 0.5 BB higher EV than betting (again based on estimated fold equity [low] and pot equity). If my assumptions are true just plugging this minor leak increases your winrate by 0.1 BB/100. I just gave you a $0.50 raise an hour on every table you play. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Thorv]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the most common thing that I say in replying to hand posts in this forum is that no one is folding at short handed LHE. This makes bets with a strong unimproved ace good on many flops/turns because people are willing to peel lightly. Your hand value drops sharply with a mere queen though, so you aren't often charging draws or worse high cards in this case - you're giving away chips when you could be stealing them with a free card.

I know that experienced players often get in the habit of always betting (and it's a good default play), but finding checks in the right spots can increase your winrate significantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't completely agree with this first paragraph. At least not in the 1/2, 2/4 games that I play in is this always true. I feel many of the players definitely do continue to call way too much throughout the hand with A-high, but many MANY times do lay this down on a river bet. Sharpie represented a high card holding with his PF raise, and in my experience betting all the way through with jacksh*t a lot of times wins me the pot. I think many players assume people give up the bluff if they call the bluffers on the turn, and if the player bets again he's got something.

However, the second paragraph of this post is very thought provoking for me. I do agree with this and being that Sharpie's chances of getting that draw on the river are so good, I do think a turn check is the better play here. Whether or not I'd be able to see/make this play during the game is another question....

[___]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't completely agree with this first paragraph. At least not in the 1/2, 2/4 games that I play in is this always true. I feel many of the players definitely do continue to call way too much throughout the hand with A-high, but many MANY times do lay this down on a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem is that you are setting up a multi street bluff against a range that includes a lot of pairs. Against passive opponents with a strong ace you can bet planning to take a free showdown knowing that you will beat his weaker holdings. Queen high does not do that nearly as often, and I don't believe a river bluff is profitable even after you increase the pot size with an incorrect turn bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Sharpie represented a high card holding with his PF raise, and in my experience betting all the way through with jacksh*t a lot of times wins me the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of the time your "jackshit" wins you had the best hand. I get called down by 44 here all the time, so when I say no one is folding I mean that no one is folding a better hand. And even that isn't true because you might get king high to fold, but that doesn't constitute enough of villain's range for your bluff to be profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
I think many players assume people give up the bluff if they call the bluffers on the turn, and if the player bets again he's got something.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a slightly sophisticated train of thought, but I think that a turn call usually means a river call from weaker players unless there is an obvious strong draw. Again, this can vary with the opponent, but considering how many things have to go right for a turn/river bet combo to go right with QT I don't like it without a read. I'd rather see it with something like 78s that has an OESD on the flop and picks up a backdoor flush on the turn on an otherwise ragged low board.

[_Z_]

I think checking is right on the river, but I'm not as sure as the other posters.

I think you will get a pair to fold occasionally. The K is a good scare card. If I'm BB, I'm occasionally playing a hand like 75s like this and folding the river, depending on what I thought of Hero.

Also, A3, A4 are reasonable hands for BB to have which will fold the river.

Z

[agent_fish]

Another possibility is checking behind on the turn and betting when you hit your draw or betting an ace or king if it hits. Unless villian has an ace or king, he will likely check to you allowing you to represent it. This also adds a little game theory to your bluff.