Parlay's Week 3 NFL

Parlay Slow · #1 09-18-2006, 03:54 AM

I like to get my bets down early on the week lines so I'll update this thread throughout the week.

YTD: 7-0-0 +9 units

Car (-3) @ TB +100 (OLY) 3 units

I felt like this line should be about a touchdown so I see tons of value here. Chris Simms is simply terrible. Tampa Bay has scored 3 offensive points all season and Carolina's defense will smother. Steve Smith may play in this game.

Morphling29 · #2 09-18-2006, 04:04 AM

IF Smith plays I love it, there may be noone more important to their teams success. Healthy they went to superbowl, next year hurt they rallied late to win 8 or 9 games, then healthy and they dominate a playoff game, now hurt again they can't win.......... Get healthy Steve!

Parlay Slow · #3 09-18-2006, 04:17 AM

NYJ (+6) @ Buf -105 (PIN) 2 units

This should definitely be a Buffalo by a FG line. Pennington has looked really good at times. Losman is a poor QB, and the Bills defense is carrying this team. Either team can win this game but getting six points is fantastic value.

Parlay Slow · #4 09-18-2006, 06:13 AM

Atl (-3) @ NO +106 (PIN) 1 unit

Assani Fisher · #5 09-18-2006, 06:16 AM

You think that an 0-2 team should be a 7 point road favorite?

Assani Fisher · #6 09-18-2006, 06:17 AM

I agree with you on the Jets game.

Which side are you taking in the Saints/Falcons game?

Parlay Slow · #7 09-18-2006, 07:01 AM

Falcons.. this line should be 4-4.5. Laying 3 and getting +106 is strong.

Panthers are a lot better than the Bucs on both sides of the football.

Parlay Slow · #8 09-20-2006, 12:16 PM

Chi (-3) @ Min -117 (PIN) 1 unit

I wish I had got on this when it was -3 EV. Oh well.

I'm really surprised at the sportsbooks on this one. I would think they would be able to set the line at 4 or even 4.5 and still generate excess action on the Chicago side. The Bears are an extremely solid team -- perhaps the class of the NFC. I can't pass up betting on them laying only a field goal, even on the road vs a potential playoff contender.

MatusowIsBald · #9 09-20-2006, 12:38 PM

7-0? Wow. Very nice. Completely agree with the Panthers and Bears picks. I hate playing road faves but both of those teams are, in my opinion, much better than their opponents. Despite their record I'm not the least bit sold on Minny (should have lost last week) and Carolina is MUCH better than their record would indicate. It's still very early but daaaaaaaaaa Bears may be the best team in the NFC.

As for why the lines are low, I think it's the classic homefield edge factored in. If Minny was playing in Chicago I have to think they would be getting at least 7, if not more. Good luck and keep up the good work.

Parlay Slow · #10 09-20-2006, 04:29 PM

"The Associated Press reports Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith (hamstring) worked on agility drills and light running during practice Wednesday, Sept. 20"