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#1
09-22-2006, 06:30 PM
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Million dollar play of the week
Tease down the colts -1 and the patriots -.5
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#3
09-22-2006, 07:42 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
All he does is lift weights, and pick winners.
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#4
09-22-2006, 08:27 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
If we can get a few people to explain why these are bad plays and if JohnAnthony would get a bit defensive I might start riding his plays. He will likely go 19-4 or 13-7 (whichever it was) like JesseSmurf did on his NBA Total over 210 under 175 systems.Old thread here..
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#5
09-22-2006, 08:39 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
personally I like the Ravens to -.5 with PHI pk
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#6
09-22-2006, 09:19 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
As with last week, this is likely a -EV parlay as you're not crossing the 7 on the Patriots game. And the Colts you're only moving off the 7 so you're not getting nearly the value as if the line was -7.5 or higher.
Meaning: Wong argues in Sharp Sports Betting that non-correlated parlays which don't cross both the 7 and 3 are -EV No disrespect intended, John Anthony. And best of luck on the pick and continued success... For the future, you may want to post your record year to date as well as some sort of unit count. That's the usual standard for posting picks.
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#7
09-22-2006, 09:38 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
Also - smooshed avatars bug me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
He's a resized version of yours if you'd like to use it:  I can't guarantee it will stay around forever, if you want it grab it and throw it on ImageShack
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#8
09-22-2006, 10:58 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
[ QUOTE ]
As with last week, this is likely a -EV parlay as you're not crossing the 7 on the Patriots game. And the Colts you're only moving off the 7 so you're not getting nearly the value as if the line was -7.5 or higher. Meaning: Wong argues in Sharp Sports Betting that non-correlated parlays which don't cross both the 7 and 3 are -EV No disrespect intended, John Anthony. And best of luck on the pick and continued success... For the future, you may want to post your record year to date as well as some sort of unit count. That's the usual standard for posting picks. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously crossing the 7 and 3 would be the most EV by far, but using mansion as an example, if you parlay these 2 MLs it comes out to -147, a 47c difference from teasing both. Now I know parlaying the MLs would be -EV, but it would have to be ridiculously -EV for the teaser also to be -EV. Also I know +100 isnt standard for most sites 2 team teasers, but thats still a 37c difference which is pretty significant. So anyway, of course crossing both the 7 and 3 is ideal, but given the differences ive stated cant teasing down 7 and 6.5 favs be +ev too? What % of the time do 6.5 and 7 point favorites win outright anyway, particularly at home?
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#9
09-22-2006, 11:31 PM
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Re: Million dollar play of the week
[ QUOTE ]
What % of the time do 6.5 and 7 point favorites win outright anyway, particularly at home? [/ QUOTE ] Depends what years you use. Assuming my data is correct this is what I come up with. 1993 through 2006 = 70.53% 1994 through 2006 = 70.36% 1995 through 2006 = 70.59% 1996 through 2006 = 71.49% 1997 through 2006 = 71.30% 1998 through 2006 = 72.00% 1999 through 2006 = 70.86% 2000 through 2006 = 68.63% 2001 through 2006 = 68.25% 2002 through 2006 = 67.89% 2003 through 2006 = 67.06% 2004 through 2006 = 65.52% This was trending downward until 2005 In 2005 there were 23 games with the home team -6.5 to -7 18 of them won outright which is 78.26%
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