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#1
09-06-2006, 03:27 PM
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Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
Wow! This line is way off. Falcons are on paper a better team than Carolina at the moment. Expectations for Carolina are way too high this year. The line is currently 5 or better and should be no better than 3. Take the Falcons 5 or better.
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#2
09-06-2006, 03:32 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
Wow! The shoe in vs. the lock of the week!!
What should we do??? WHO DO WE BELIEVE??
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#3
09-06-2006, 03:40 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
[ QUOTE ]
Wow! The shoe in vs. the lock of the week!! What should we do??? WHO DO WE BELIEVE?? [/ QUOTE ] Far from a lock, if there is such a thing. Just a line that doesn't make sense. Take a look at my Falcons' picks history and you'll note I have a pretty good feel for the team. This pick, notably, is a "just getting started" pick and certainly should be taken with the grain of salt it deserves. In later posts, I will be provide more explicit details about my reasoning, but this pick is pretty simple to me. The line should be 2.5 to 3.5 and its not.
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#4
09-06-2006, 03:46 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
Simple Sagarin power rating based on last year's stats has Carolina -6.5.
Carolina's DT position this year is much upgraded over last year. Not advocating Carolina, but just giving a basis for the line.
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#5
09-06-2006, 03:56 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
[ QUOTE ]
Simple Sagarin power rating based on last year's stats has Carolina -6.5. Carolina's DT position this year is much upgraded over last year. Not advocating Carolina, but just giving a basis for the line. [/ QUOTE ] Falcon's entire defense much upgraded over last season -- replacement of both safeties with solid performes Crockett and Lawyer Milloy; addition of Grady Jackson; addition of John Abraham; 6 probowlers on the squad including 3 probowl defensive linemen and maybe the best cornerback in the league. Admittedly there are 2 key questions yet to be answered: 1. What will the impact me of not having Hartwell in the starting lineup Sunday? 2. Will they be cohesive enough to be effective given all their changes? I'm not concerned that much about #1 but it still is a question. #2 is really what I'm concerned about. Falcons have the pieces -- but can the coaches put the pieces together this quickly? I'm not sure.
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#6
09-06-2006, 03:57 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
Yourtoast - Falcons over Panthers
 BigAl - Panthers over Falcons  [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#7
09-06-2006, 04:17 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
I'm shocked.
In other shocking news, I like the Eagles to win and cover each week, and to win the Super Bowl by at least 14 points. g/l this year toasty [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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#8
09-06-2006, 08:03 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm shocked. In other shocking news, I like the Eagles to win and cover each week, and to win the Super Bowl by at least 14 points. g/l this year toasty [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Remember I don't pick them to win (or cover) every week -- although I tend not to bet against them (although I may recommend that you do so) My view is and always will be that being a fan gives me an edge as long as I stay objective. See prior posts on this subject. Oh...and thanks ccX
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#9
09-06-2006, 08:11 PM
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Re: Falcons at Panthers: Bloated Expectations (I\'m back)
As a Falcons fan, I unfortunately have to go with the Shoe In of the Week over the Lock of the Week. Not to oversimplify, but the Panthers are a Superbowl contender playing at home against a mediocre team. Plus there is no reason to think that the Falcons match up well versus the Panthers; if anything, there is reason to think the opposite.
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