flopped a set, board gets scary 3/6

JKratzer · #1 09-06-2006, 01:33 AM

villian is 20/10, on a couple of my tables. seems pretty solid postflop, haven't seen him get out of line. we haven't played any memorable hands yet, my image should be tag.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($1119.41)
SB ($366.47)
Hero ($600)
UTG ($406)
MP ($565.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, MP calls $6, Button raises to $24, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, MP folds.

Flop: ($57) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $28, Hero raises to $102, Button calls $74.

Turn: ($261) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $200, Button calls $200.

River: ($661) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero pukes ($275 left)

jkratzer

JackAll · #2 09-06-2006, 05:16 AM

It looks a lot like a flush draw, set or overpair when he calls ur flop. It's hard to narrow it down on the turn, so depends on how often you think he has each of these things.

The thing is - you lose half the sets, and to fd's, so you only gain from overs which is a narrow part of his range - and lose to 1 of the 3 overpairss on the turn too. Actually, you also lose to half of KK/AA too now cuz half of them have a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So ur really far behind everything except a lower set.

I would bet turn for a bit less (2/3psb = 180), which leaves you 300 left, which is half your stack, and I would check/fold the river. With overs or a set, I reckon he is likely to want a showdown and check behind. Maybe even with KxK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

If you bet you get called by better hands. If you check he will check behind worse hands so you can check/fold.

JA

Big_Jim · #3 09-06-2006, 05:42 AM

It sucks... but I think you gotta check/fold.

Rest of the hand seems fine, he'll have AA/KK and pay off plenty of times. Call a turn push, obviously, since you have good pot odds amd often the best hand.

He'll often have a hand with a diamond (AA/KK with the diamond being most likely), and he'll often check behind with hands that you beat, and maybe even one or two that beat you.

There are really no hands that are worse than yours that can really call a shove, there aren't really any better hands that you fold, since a low diamond here should be incredibly unlikely, a high one isn't folding.

Does air push the river here often enough to make the call +EV? I doubt it.

Reef · #4 09-06-2006, 06:35 AM

immediately go on tilt and push. At least that's what I'd do.
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gotta be right here just under 1 in 4 times .. I think it can go either way. Pushing is just spewy since small diamond unlikely. Gotta go with gut at the moment.. I think tons of hands you beat may also push as a bluff if checked to, but ugh.. I guess I'm like 60/40 c/f vs c/c.

Keepitsimple · #5 09-06-2006, 07:13 AM

I also think C/C is better than push. You will not fold a better hand.

AlwaysAir · #6 09-06-2006, 08:49 AM

c/f hope for a SD O_O

Go_Blue88 · #7 09-06-2006, 10:18 AM

c/f, most players don't bluff often enough in this spot to make this a solid call. And based on how he played the hand he might have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Ax or K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx.

JKratzer · #8 09-06-2006, 10:50 AM

i checked with the intention of folding. villian checked behind with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

aceswild83 · #9 09-06-2006, 11:10 AM

really the only thing you beat on river is AA or KK or maybe QJ w/o [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but those hands would probably check behind so I think you have to c/f.

I'm often leading this flop but c/r is also good ofc.
turn looks fine, you should be a head of his range and have outs if he hit the flush.