($16) JJ on the bubble against big stack

taipan168 · #1 08-31-2006, 04:12 AM

Opp is a 26/19. He had been stealing liberally when blinds hit 50/100 which is why I re-raised him. Is flat calling his preflop raise a better line? I don't have much FE here (or do I?) and I certainly don't need to take a flip or be dominated by the big stack here.

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t75/t150
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1540
Button: t2600
SB: t5545
Hero: t3815

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, SB raises to t450, Hero raises to t1050, SB raises to t1950, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t900 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: t2100

Fiksdal · #2 08-31-2006, 06:17 AM

I would push this after his first raise. If he had been stealing a lot, this is an even easier push imo.

A fold could could maybe have been justified if there were someone with like 3-4xbb stack, and you were just waiting for him to bust.

As played, after he comes over the top of your re-raise, there is no reason you should not take the coinflip you are talking about, considering all the chips already in the pot. He might of course have AA-QQ, but at this stage, and with your reads, I think the range he could be making this play with is a lot wider, and when he doesn't flip over AK, you might even see 77-TT.

I get my chips in here every time.. sometimes I bust out, more often I get a great chiplead, with good expectation for finnishing second and often first.

SoloAJ · #3 08-31-2006, 11:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would push this after his first raise. If he had been stealing a lot, this is an even easier push imo.

A fold could could maybe have been justified if there were someone with like 3-4xbb stack, and you were just waiting for him to bust.

As played, after he comes over the top of your re-raise, there is no reason you should not take the coinflip you are talking about, considering all the chips already in the pot. He might of course have AA-QQ, but at this stage, and with your reads, I think the range he could be making this play with is a lot wider, and when he doesn't flip over AK, you might even see 77-TT.

I get my chips in here every time.. sometimes I bust out, more often I get a great chiplead, with good expectation for finnishing second and often first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm agreeing with all of this analysis. The lowest anyone is in chips is somewhere about 10 BB...It might be awhile.

The raise was only 3x the BB but I still think a full blown push would be better...if he is not only loose, but also a gambler, he might call with any underpair or Arag....

TruFloridaGator · #4 08-31-2006, 12:30 PM

I'd push too & would repush once re-raised. I've seen some really weird things with maniacs re-raising lately. I had the same thing happen to me the other day in almost the same exact situation. I had AA, he had KJ. That was a 60, too. That's just one instance of course but they will make weird plays when they "think" you are finally making a play on them because they have been a bully. You could see Ax coneivably here in certain spots.

dawade · #5 08-31-2006, 01:11 PM

When I first saw this thread, this looked like an instapush facing the first raise, especially with the read on our opponent.

DevinLake · #6 08-31-2006, 01:14 PM

I'd push. He's been stealing a lot, you're way ahead of his range, and you have a tonne of fold equity.

Plus, if he folds you are more likely to get walks in your BB in the future.

taipan168 · #7 08-31-2006, 07:17 PM

Thanks for the replies. If SB really is on a steal, isn't there enough FE with a (less than all-in) re-raise? Do I really want to mess with the big stack here? If it had been either of the other stacks I would have just instashoved over.

morphball · #8 09-01-2006, 12:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. If SB really is on a steal, isn't there enough FE with a (less than all-in) re-raise? Do I really want to mess with the big stack here? If it had been either of the other stacks I would have just instashoved over.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the $16t, the big stack really needs to be crippled to have any FE, especially if he's luck-boxed his way there chasing. Do you really want a call? You won't like 52% of the flops.

apples · #9 09-01-2006, 04:52 AM

Dunno how I could fold this he probably thinks you're on a resteal.

Genz · #10 09-01-2006, 05:23 AM

How are you going to proceed on the flop? You already have 50% of your chips in there. An overcard will hit on the flop the majority of the time, making your stomach turn. You can't really hope for a set. So I think it's best to put the rest of the chips in there while SB doesn't know if he will hit with one or two high cards.
After his open-raise, an all-in looks a little like overkill, so I have sympathy with the reraise, although I think it's too small. I'd definitely push after his rereraise. This is screaming "I bully YOU!" If he had a huge hand, he would have pushed himself, probably. I see you in good shape.