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Nearing bubble in online MTT sat. qualifier. Should I push or wait?
3500+ started only 59 remain. I'm in 48th place. The top 50 advance to next qualifier tournament. Blinds are 12000/6000 + 600 ante. I have 53K. My table image is tight, as I've had an extremely cold run of cards.
The whole table has become extremely tight as everybody is waiting for nine others to drop so we can advance. There are two really healthy stacks at the table, each to my immediate left. The first (250K) hasn't played a hand for more than 30 minutes. He is clearly camping out waiting for the finish. The other has more chips (400K) and is playing, but very tight now. The remainder at the table have my stack +- 20K. We have just come back from a break, so the blinds have just gone up to the 12000/6000. I am UTG with AJs. In the next 10 hands I'm going to lose 24K in blinds and antes. If I do nothing, I have 21 hands before I'm blinded out. My read on the table (which, of course, is not 100% accurate) was that if I pushed, only AA, KK, maybe QQ, and AK would call. The deepest stack at the table might call with weaker hands. He might go with the same plus AQ, AJ, and pairs down to 8s. I know that if I push and win (either just the blinds or doubling up), I can coast to the finish line. Again, if I fold, I have 21 hands until I'm blinded out. Do I push or fold? |
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