5/10 -- a turn decision

[Caddy_4_Life]

Party 5/10 (5 handed)

I pick up AJo in SB. Folded to 50/14/1.5/30ASB CO who raises, Button folds, I 3bang it, tight BB folds.

Flop TJQr (2 players)

I bet, CO raises, I call.

Turn 8

I check, CO bets, whats your thoughts?

Caddy

[Mossberg]

Well you're definitely calling the turn.. You're still ahead some of the time, and if not, you have outs. On the river I plan on calling because the pot will be a decent size, and you're probably taking it down enough of the time to make it +EV..

[Mathieu]

I think we have to call the turn and re-evaluate on river. Do you know if he is an aggressive value bettor?

If he won't value bet KJ,AJ kind of hands on the river, then you will have to fold, otherwise it looks like a thin call. I am assuming he would usually cap AQ+ preflop vs a possible resteal.

[Heisenb3rg]

hmmm, this is a VERY tough question.
There are so many variables for this action , on this flop, it's so hard to guess what's right. It's near impossible to pin him on a hand, and you have barely any idea who the river card actually helped. All you know is that's it's very likely you are behind right now, but likely have outs. Unfortuantly for you, you have no idea what these outs are.

Say he raises PF 66+, A7+, K9+, QT+

This isnt a bluffable flop into a pf raiser unless you catch some peice of the flop, so we can assume he's not just lost his mind.

Let's assume he's very agressive and raises any "peice" of the flop besides a gutshot.

You're ahead of:
AT, KT, KJ (AT is a pretty nutty raise on this flop)

You're behind:
AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AQ,AK,K9,KQ, QJ,QT, JT


Some hands you have tons of outs against, while some you are drawing slim. All of his likely losing hands have many outs against you. The worst (AT) is chopping with you when a K comes, beating you if a T comes, and chopping with a 9.
And this hand is fairly unlikely.

I think it may be profitable to "draw to the A/K/J/9"
otherwise fold to a river bet. It might also be proftiable to call both streets. I wouldn't bet anything on it though..

You have tons of "potential" outs.
2 jacks left, 3 aces left, 4 kings, 4 8's to a split pot.
But most of those outs have very little potential.

jacks maybe worth like 0.5-0.75 outs. It only puts you ahead of AQ, KQ,KT,QT and since your losing more than 50% of the time, reverse implied odds are in effect.


The 3 aces are worth about 0.5 outs, they only puts you ahead of QT,QJ,JT. It also puts all the king straight draws ahead of you. Since your losing more than 50% of the time, reverse implied odds are in effect. These outs are near worthless.

A king is probabily worth 4 outs because of the implied odds (even though your chopping with some hands). Pretty much nobody would fold two pair/set here.

A 9 is probabily worth 1.5 outsish because of the reverse implied odds and chop chops.

So I think you can estimate just around what youd need to make a call barely profitable.

Tough call.

[Nick C]

I would just call it down.

He's a LAG, and I think his range it too wide for us to fold. (I'm not even positive he doesn't just have Kx.)

I'm not going to claim I'm happy about the situation, though.

And if you think he has decent respect for your preflop 3-bet, then the situation is bleaker than I described.