4/8 live, JTo in the BB flops a gutty

[bozlax]

Beautiful table. 4/8, 10-handed, a total fishbowl, non-kill, loose-passives out the wazoo; nothing particularly notable about any of them, they all seem to be fairly predictable: they're pretty w/t when it comes to playing draws, but they'll call down if they catch a decent piece. I'm making hands, value-betting my ass off, feeling good, when this hand comes up.

I'm in the BB, looking at J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 limpers, the SB completes, I check my option. 7 handed to the flop for 7SB.

The flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB checks, I check, EP bets, 1 fold, 3 calls, the SB folds and I call getting 11:1.

5 players to the turn for 6BB, and it comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, EP bets, 1 fold, 2 calls...Hero?

What's your action, and why? This hand has made me think of something, but I'd like to hear opinions before discussing.

[Buzz-cp]

Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not worried about that. If I bet, these players will call. Here's my question:

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

btw, any progress on that dead pc?

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not worried about that. If I bet, these players will call. Here's my question:

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

btw, any progress on that dead pc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking about putting in bets on this turn? I'm confused

I'm giving up on the pc.

[bennyhana]

[ QUOTE ]
Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I don't understand your question. Why is THIS hand any different than the other hands? Are you trying to improve your table image? Like someone else said, they will view you as a chaser of gutshots and pay you off more. But, I don't see anything wrong with the turn call, then donking the river Q.


OR, you are trying to discount your outs because others might have the same draw you do, a 4 outer to the str8 and you could be drawing to half the pot.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you want to check/raise with the intention of making up missed bets from other hands you played where you called with a gutshot on the turn with proper odds? If so, I don't think this should be a concern to you, just worry about the task at hand.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you want to check/raise with the intention of making up missed bets from other hands you played where you called with a gutshot on the turn with proper odds? If so, I don't think this should be a concern to you, just worry about the task at hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm talking about making up bets from other hands where we called with IMPROPER odds because of our good implieds.

We value-raise a nut flush draw with a bet and a call in front of us on the flop because it's going to come in 35% of the time and we're only putting in 33% of the money. Over the long run, that raise makes us money.

In this case, we're making a call on the turn because we're going to make up bets when we hit on the river, enough to make up for the deficit in our odds when we made the turn call. But what about the 10 out of 11 times that we make that call and DON'T hit on the river? Do those missing bets just disappear? Isn't making calls because our implied odds are good enough to make up the difference in this hand -EV if the implied odds don't make up for the hands that we miss?

Edit: from Beni:

[ QUOTE ]
Why is THIS hand any different than the other hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not, but that's the point. We're making a call without the odds 11 times because we will make up enough bets to cover the odds 1 time. Doesn't that seem wrong?

[bennyhana]

If you are calling with proper odds on the hands you miss, why does it matter? If you are making bad calls on gutshots, one hand isn't going to make up for them all.

Edit: this is after I read your edit. You shouldn't be making thin gutshot calls. That's why implied odds are so difficult to play on. You don't know for sure you will make up the bets. But with strong reads you can make the calls confidently.

Is it wrong? I don't know. Statistically it shouldn't be. If you don't think you can make up the bets, start folding them.

ReEdit: I'm gonna sleep in this one. I'll get with you tomorrow.

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
In this case, we're making a call on the turn because we're going to make up bets when we hit on the river, enough to make up for the deficit in our odds when we made the turn call. But what about the 10 out of 11 times that we make that call and DON'T hit on the river? Do those missing bets just disappear? Isn't making calls because our implied odds are good enough to make up the difference in this hand -EV if the implied odds don't make up for the hands that we miss?


[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to be convoluting a simple pot odds problem. There is value in putting bets in, because the pot has money and we expect to make a couple bets on the river. It's marginally +EV, but +EV the same.

[BenA]

[ QUOTE ]
In this case, we're making a call on the turn because we're going to make up bets when we hit on the river, enough to make up for the deficit in our odds when we made the turn call. But what about the 10 out of 11 times that we make that call and DON'T hit on the river? Do those missing bets just disappear? Isn't making calls because our implied odds are good enough to make up the difference in this hand -EV if the implied odds don't make up for the hands that we miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still pretty confused, but I'm gonna take a shot at this anyways. "Do the missing bets just dissapear?" is the line I'm going to argue with. If I am not mistaken, what you are saying is that calling with 9:1 odds on an 11:1 shot to hit the river provides us with a deficit of 2 bets each time that happens, which somehow stack up on themselves indefinitely and have to all be made up for when we do hit. This would only be correct if we actually only made 9 bets when we did hit, and lost 10 on all those other calls. So in the long run, we wager 11 bets, lose 10 times, and make 9 bets once. So we have a -EV situation if this same exact hand happens 11 times we only make 9 bets.

That's where implied odds saves the day. If we always drew with correct implied odds, there is no deficit, since essentially we ADD the 2 bets we expect to make on the river to the pot on the turn. If we don't hit, that's life, but it doesn't change that we WOULD have made up 2 or more bets (if we surmised the situation correctly). Implied odds are just an accurate adjustment of the present pot, so technically, if you are drawing to at least 11:1 implied odds, you are making up for all the other times you miss.

If you draw and miss in a 9 bet pot and then fold, it doesn't mean that because you weren't in the river action, you were now retrospectively drawing incorrectly. You'll still lost no more than your 1 bet on the turn, and in Sklansky theory, you've actually made money if the decision was correct in the first place. There are no hypothetical re-adjustments of drawing odds based on results, there is no deficit other than the one that should mathematically be covered by drawing correctly with pot or implied odds, every single time.

Edit: As an afterthought, this particular hand may be very close in terms of EV. If its -EV, its only because of this hand, not the other ones.