Calling resteals Question, Probably involves Math but All welcome

[Brandonjp13]

This guys been playing aggresive poker and I'm willing to bet my chips this is a flat resteal and that i'm ahead. My question is how far ahead do I need to be to risk all my chips by calling? clearly I know i should if he's got A-rag but what about if he's got a K6s or something like that, where do I draw the line with my hand reading skills and say it's not worth the gamble if it's likely he's got such and such hand?



PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t645)
UTG+1 (t745)
MP1 (t4475)
MP2 (t2485)
CO (t3775)
Hero (t1475)
SB (t1790)
BB (t1940)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t1790 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

[cortjstr]

can you be a little more specific with respect to his recent activities. Does he see alot of flops? Does he ever fold his SB? Have you tried a steal yet?

If he sees alot of flops, calls alot of preflop raises, or has called a steal from you before (or even if you've picked of the blinds recently) I call this virtually without hesitation.

I think you're ahead here too often not to call this. Even when you are behind its probably a race.

[Brandonjp13]

sees alot of flop, cbets with air, he even reraised with air and showed his bluff. I've not stolen so to speak the whole tournament but I have raised into his blinds with the likes AK, KQ when it was folded to me. but we never made it to a shown down as the flop was solid each time and I wasn't going in without a pair or a flushdraw against a possiable already made flush from one of the callers.

[bgoalie35]

I don't get the question about how far ahead you need to be. You just need to be ahead. The pot is offering you slight odds, but this is really just about your read. If you know he's doing this with air, and you believe you are ahead of his range, then call him. You can't pass up +EV opportunities and still hope to win. You will have to gamble some time, and this looks like a good spot, if your read is correct. BTW, the example you gave with K6, you would be 64% to win the pot.

[corndog]

Not much math involved. You are just over even money (1.3 or so I think) so it just comes down to if you think your hand is better than his. You are ahead of too much of villain's range for this to be -EV. Double yourself up and cripple the maniac.

[skier_5]

It doesn't really matter if he has been a total nut case, unless he has been reraising preflop raises (and even then I'd probably have to see this a couple times before I call) I fold this instantly.