4-8 TD 2-7- Interesting Hand

[DustinG]

Obviously my play here is almost entirely read-dependent (the guy is a maniac- a semi-thinking maniac). I have no clue whether I had the best hand or not, but I didn't want to check the river and find out- after he sees me stand pat behind him this guy can fold a 98 or better ten on the river I think. After the hand was over I felt pretty damn smart- but breaking is probably the higher percentage play??

Also, after it checks around on the flop does anyone draw 1 to the 98? These guys will put me on a nine if I do it, but is that ok?

Euri10's TD converter

Hand number:
Level: $4/$8
Players:
Hero($351) seat 0
Button($603) seat 3
SB($131) seat 4

Button at seat 3

SB posts. Hero posts.

Hand: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Round 1(0.75BB)

Button raises. SB calls. Hero
calls. SB takes 3. Hero takes 2. Button takes 2.

Hand: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Round 2(2.75BB)

SB checks. Hero checks. Button checks. SB takes 2. Hero takes 2. Button takes 2.

Hand: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Round 3(2.75BB)

SB bets. Hero raises. Button
folds. SB re-raises. Hero
re-raises. SB calls. SB stands pat. Hero stands pat.

Hand: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Round 4(10.75BB)

SB checks. <font color="white">Hero bets 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB
folds undefined</font>

[*TT*]

I have never figured out the optimum play in this scenario, but I have a hard time believing that is optimum play against the player type you described in the long run.
Yes it worked, but do the same 50 times in a row and I think (think being the key word) that this is a -EV play.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Xellos]

Against semi-thinking maniacs when I try this they either break before the last draw like I want or they call the river after standing pat and I lose, but I guess it works sometimes. I'm assuming that your river cap was meant to force a break, so I think this was played fine. Once you get to the river and they didn't break the pot is huge so you may as well put a last bet in there and hope for the best.

*edit*
I'm retarded and can't read. I thought you were pat first then he stood pat behind. When he stands pat in front of you I think you have to break.

[DustinG]

Any other player and I break this hand, but this guy is one of the most aggressive and craziest players I have ever seen. I say that he is a thinking maniac because he doesn't seem stupid- there is some sort of method to his play. When he does have a hand he gets paid off and when people play back at him like I did and he has it, well....usually he loses big.

He knows me well enough to know that I will cap the turn off with any ten or better. I know that he will do it with probably any jack or better, in addition to some pure bluffs. He knows that if he stands pat in front I will probably have to break whatever I have, and if he has some sort of unbreakable hand like a JT- then that is his only play and he would certainly call the cap, stand pat, and hope for the best rather than fold.

Obviously that is what happened, but what I am saying is that the play of the hand can't be the factor in determining whether or not to break the ten. From what I have seen from this guy, I'm not sure he would even break a ten if he had something smooth to draw to- it just isn't his style to be 'aggressed' - he would much rather be the aggressor.

So ultimately its just a math problem. What are the chances of him two carding a worse hand he would play this way + the chance he might fold a slightly better hand on the river + the chance he is snowing vs the odds of me improving my hand to beat him the times he does have me beat?? The worst 97 is #33. The worst ten is #121, but I think his range is worse than that- so if he always calls on the river with a 97 or better but folds anything else, then he is folding more than %75 on the river. Meanwhile any 2,4, or 7 is probably good for me- but I would assume that 3 of those 12 outs are probably dead (two dueces and at least 1 4 or 7)- so that leaves me with around a %20 of hitting my hand. %80 of the top 121 hands is anything T9653 or better. No way he calls me on the river with hands that bad, and since my own hand is within that range.....I think I like my play.

I was in this exact same situation today against a player who lurks here, and who I have played with a decent amount- so he both knows my thought process and my game- and I of course know he knows- so when he stayed pat in front I did the same with my 987- except this time I didnt bet the river. He had a smooth 98 and said he would have folded had I bet. Beh.