Commerce 1/2 River confusion.

surfdoc · #1 08-09-2006, 04:29 PM

This is my maiden voyage in this game. I haven't been playing long but my general feeling is that it is just another card game. The jitters of taking a shot have vanished and I am feeling comfortable.

The villian in this hand is a 50ish year old white guy dressed in a nice adidas sweat suit and seems to be playing a TAGGY ABC style. I don't know much though and this is just my initial profile without a lot of data to back it up.

We are 8 handed and it is folded to me in the CO with Ad7d. me454555 comes by the table to say hello just as I am open raising. The villian above 3 bets from the button. Blinds fold and we take a flop HU.

Flop: As8c3d.

My plan includes a lot of checking and calling and maybe donking the river depending on my feel.

I check and call.

Turn: Ks (As 8c 3d)

I check and he checks.

River: 4s (Ks As 8c 3d)

I bet and now he raises! My move?

newhizzle · #2 08-09-2006, 06:00 PM

well, the only hand that makes sense is either 44 or a poorly played AA/AK/KK, i see people raise this river with like JJ sometimes online, but thats pretty unlikely at commerce i think, since hes relatively unknown, i dont see how you can fold here, 2 bets were supposed to go in on big streets anyway

if you had a better read that he was an aggressive value bettor(like hed bet a king here) i might try for a river check/raise, but against your regular commerce pro, betting is better i think, as you might not get paid off anyway

edit: justr saw that the flush draw came in, that makes sense now too, but i think id still pay it off especially since if he has a flush, he cant have a king and we dont know him well enough to know if he checks behind with no showdown value when he picks up a draw or 3-bets QJs and lower, if you had a better read that he is faily passive and not tricky, i could see folding here

Caldarooni · #3 08-09-2006, 06:12 PM

Call for info, fold cause you're beat?

ssmallz · #4 08-09-2006, 08:33 PM

Seems like a pretty standard fold to me w/out a better read. When villain 3 bets pf his range is fairly wide but it doesn't include any aces smaller than yours.

His bet on the flop is totally standard so that doesn't help narrow down his hand. His check on the turn either means he has strenth w/AA, KK, AK, A8 or he's weak w/QQ, JJ, TT or some other lower pp. Checking the turn here HU isn't a terrible play b/c 1) its HU, 2) the flush draw is a runner runner, and 3) In HU pots, the flush is just less likley given your hand range of open raising from CO

The more I think about it, I like checking the river here more than betting. My feeling is that he's likely to fold QQ, JJ, and raise better aces than yours. The pot is small and I don't like investing an extra bb here w/a pretty marginal hand. If you can't fold to or call a raise w/confidence just check and call

mike l. · #5 08-09-2006, 08:42 PM

against that guy youre definitely beat and it doesnt really matter how. just fold and figure out later what he could have had. and you need to bet-fold the turn. he's not aggro enough to rely on him betting a worse hand on the turn, but he is bad enough to call with plenty.

surfdoc · #6 08-09-2006, 08:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a pretty standard fold to me w/out a better read. When villain 3 bets pf his range is fairly wide but it doesn't include any aces smaller than yours.

His bet on the flop is totally standard so that doesn't help narrow down his hand. His check on the turn either means he has strenth w/AA, KK, AK, A8 or he's weak w/QQ, JJ, TT or some other lower pp. Checking the turn here HU isn't a terrible play b/c 1) its HU, 2) the flush draw is a runner runner, and 3) In HU pots, the flush is just less likley given your hand range of open raising from CO

The more I think about it, I like checking the river here more than betting. My feeling is that he's likely to fold QQ, JJ, and raise better aces than yours. The pot is small and I don't like investing an extra bb here w/a pretty marginal hand. If you can't fold to or call a raise w/confidence just check and call

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking and calling is just bad. If he has TT-QQ he may be defensively checking the turn hoping to just get to SD cheaply. He will often pay off 1 bet that looks pretty suspicious where he won't value bet. The problem here is that it is tough for me to put him on AA, KK, AK after his turn check. We the arrival of a flush draw and after I call the flop on a pretty dry board, it is really bizarre for him to check any of these hands. Him checking a better ace is also bizarre. Hence the "river confusion".

surfdoc · #7 08-09-2006, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
against that guy youre definitely beat and it doesnt really matter how. just fold and figure out later what he could have had. and you need to bet-fold the turn. he's not aggro enough to rely on him betting a worse hand on the turn, but he is bad enough to call with plenty.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the case then I should probably CR the flop and lead the turn.

mike l. · #8 08-09-2006, 09:06 PM

"I should probably CR the flop and lead the turn."

that's fine. but he might be naive enough to get confused by a flop call, turn donk.

ssmallz · #9 08-09-2006, 09:12 PM

Thats why I put the last line in. I don't think its the most +EV line but at least it gets you to showdown cheap and you get to see how he plays.

You stated that you were worried about the fold b/c he might have tried to push you off your hand w/JJ or QQ. If he's that aggro then he's def bluffing the river w/a em too if you check it to him.

Why do you think its weird to check the turn w/AA, KK, or AK? The turn is essentially a blank. He's fairly sure the spade didn't give you a flushdraw and its HU. Its def phesable for him to check here b/c a free card doesn't hurt his hand as your likely drawing dead against those 3 hands

baronzeus · #10 08-09-2006, 10:42 PM

i definitely checkraise the flop here. the way you played it, probably cry and call, and say to myself "well, if he had bet all the streets i woulda lost 2 bets anyways".