Does increasing your bet size increase your EV when bonus clearing?

[stephan]

By EV I mean expected value and not $/hour! I need to settle this once and for all. I have this posted at 3 forums and it's split almost evenly the number of people who think both ways.

I'm having a debate with several people over this. Here is the scenario.

Casino x is giving you a $100 bonus for depositing $100 at their site. You have to wager $2000 to clear the $100 bonus and cash out.

Group 1 says that the EV of the bonus is the same no matter how much you bet. If you bet $20 100x then you should expect $2000x.995= (house edge of .5%) $10. Subtract that $10 from the $100 bonus and you net $90. If you bet $1 2000x then it's the same exact result.

Group 2 says Anytime wagering requirements do not carry over, betting
higher increases variance, which increases EV. This reason is very
simple. Over the long run you are wagering a lot less at a negative
expectation game.

Who is right?


EDIT:
This is what the math forum thinks about it

This is what they think about it over at Rx (the discussion starts on page 3)

[kyleb]

pzhon is correct when he says that EV increases with bet size. I've said it here many times, but everyone refuses to believe me. In that case, I suggest anyone who thinks that larger bet sizes do not increase EV to take pzhon and I up on a bet to be confirmed by an independent auditor like the Wizard of Odds.

I'll take action up to $100,000 with a minimum bet of $25,000. I can't speak for pzhon, but I'm sure he's willing to wager a relatively large sum as well.

[stephan]

[ QUOTE ]
pzhon is correct when he says that EV increases with bet size. I've said it here many times, but everyone refuses to believe me. In that case, I suggest anyone who thinks that larger bet sizes do not increase EV to take pzhon and I up on a bet to be confirmed by an independent auditor like the Wizard of Odds.

I'll take action up to $100,000 with a minimum bet of $25,000. I can't speak for pzhon, but I'm sure he's willing to wager a relatively large sum as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, how much dif does it make and how much more variance are we talking?

[kyleb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pzhon is correct when he says that EV increases with bet size. I've said it here many times, but everyone refuses to believe me. In that case, I suggest anyone who thinks that larger bet sizes do not increase EV to take pzhon and I up on a bet to be confirmed by an independent auditor like the Wizard of Odds.

I'll take action up to $100,000 with a minimum bet of $25,000. I can't speak for pzhon, but I'm sure he's willing to wager a relatively large sum as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's the case, how much dif does it make and how much more variance are we talking?

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is likely minimal over a small sample, but significant over many trials. The variance will go absolutely sky-high through the roof.

[funkymunky]

[ QUOTE ]
pzhon is correct when he says that EV increases with bet size. I've said it here many times, but everyone refuses to believe me. In that case, I suggest anyone who thinks that larger bet sizes do not increase EV to take pzhon and I up on a bet to be confirmed by an independent auditor like the Wizard of Odds.

I'll take action up to $100,000 with a minimum bet of $25,000. I can't speak for pzhon, but I'm sure he's willing to wager a relatively large sum as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do people not see this as true? If they're more concerned about risk of ruin, then fine. But if you are going to gamble , then GAMBOOL!!

[Blowup Doll]

I can't believe there are people who still argue about this.

[stephan]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe there are people who still argue about this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm still a noob to casinos [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Btw, you think it's yes or no?

[1huskerfan]

Your EV per dollar waged will remain constant. Your overll EV goes up.

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your EV per dollar waged will remain constant. Your overll EV goes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

well put.

might as well amend it to say

EV per dollar wagered remains constant
Average amount wagered decreases from busting out
Overall EV goes up

[ubercuber]

Given that Ed Miller settled this matter on this forum, you might be hard pressed to find anyone here who thinks otherwise. I too am falling in line, EV goes up.