JJ set river fold

DavidC · #1 08-05-2006, 12:06 AM

Damn you and your simple pleasures, ILP!

The guy that donked the turn is something like 35/5/1 and the last time he donkbet the turn he'd made a gutshot. The guy on the button is a TAG.

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Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (7.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.70 BB

Hobbs. · #2 08-05-2006, 12:08 AM

how do you not raise the turn????

DavidC · #3 08-05-2006, 12:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how do you not raise the turn????

[/ QUOTE ]

(All figures HU)

If I put him on a straight i'm at 22%

If I put him on a straight or a turned 2pr I'm at 45%. Giving him TT puts me at 48.8%.

Giving him 88 and 55 put me at 55%, but I'd have expected him to donk the flop.

--Dave.

I don't know if he would donk out KT that improved here. Maybe he would. How would that change my equity?

camerondiggs · #4 08-05-2006, 12:20 AM

am i wrong here or is that thinking just worst case scenario kind of betting. What is the percentage you are way ahead

DavidC · #5 08-05-2006, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
am i wrong here or is that thinking just worst case scenario kind of betting. What is the percentage you are way ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I included the 2pr hands and asked people to start including turned Tx hands and telling me what my equity is under different circumstances.

To be honest, I don't think hobbs actually even considered equity for a moment, just our hand strength (i.e. "three-of-a-kind is getting pretty high in the charts").

--Dave.

forshure · #6 08-05-2006, 12:26 AM

This range is way too narrow. You do not have near that good of a read to make it this narrow. Your hand is ridiculous strong w/ insane equity. Not raising the turn is simply wrong.

Also, I dont tend to fold this river against unknowns. I would not really call the button who ccs on the button there a strong tag usually, and such tags will often make odd plays also that would cause me not to fold this river

Oracle · #7 08-05-2006, 12:36 AM

DavidC-

With all due respect, I think you're outplaying yourself. Popping this turn is superstandard.

sharpie · #8 08-05-2006, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Kwaz · #9 08-05-2006, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]

If I put him on a straight or a turned 2pr I'm at 45%. Giving him TT puts me at 48.8%.

[/ QUOTE ]

How on earth do you get equity figures like this?

TheHip41 · #10 08-05-2006, 01:20 AM

don't over think it. I did this in a live game a few months back. I raise TT utg, me and 5 players take the flop.

It's T73 rainbow I bet, first guy raises, all 4 cold call, I call, dreaming of check raising 5 ppl on the turn with the nuts.

Turn board T734r I check, flop raiser bets, 1 call, SB c/r, I think for awhile and just call, River A. SB bets, I call, Flop raiser calls, guy has 33.

Now, given my read, I should have figured out this guy can only have a set when he cold calls on that flop, but I got so fancy instead of just 3betting all that dead money on the flop, I froze on the turn. I should have three bet this guy, but I froze up.

In your hand, you absolutely have to raise the turn, if he 3bets, so what, just call down. You can protect your hand with a turn raise, and also charge draws, and honestly, you will be winning way more than you are losing.

The fact that you just smooth called the turn bet means if the TAG makes two pair on the river, he's probably going to raise.

Turn is a must raise, river fold is bad.