$100 NL Jacks Under Fire on Monotone Board

King_S · #1 08-03-2006, 11:19 PM

No reads on player, as GT+ wasn't loaded.

Effective stacks: $100

Dealt to Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Button(Villain) raises $3.50, SB(Hero) raises $12, BB folds, Villain calls.

Analysis: Villain only calls the raise, so I can rule out AA, KK and QQ, as they warrant re-raises.

Flop: (~$25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $20, Villain bets $88 all-in, Hero ...

Analysis: Villain most likely does not hold AA, KK, or QQ, given the pre-Flop action. Perhaps Villain has a naked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X non-heart.

Advise me.

gimmetheloot · #2 08-03-2006, 11:24 PM

AK/AQhh or AhK AhQ or something. You are probably flipping or crushed. Then again I made a tilt call with this EXACT situation earlier and villain flipped up KQ no suit, so...

I think you are flipping way more than not and you need to call given what is already in the pot.

Claunchy · #3 08-03-2006, 11:26 PM

I don't necessarily think you can rule out QQ+. If he reraises your reraise, he might as well turn his cards over. I will often just call preflop here with these hands.

Basically, you advertised a big pair, and he pushed anyway. That screams a lot of strength. I probably fold here.

holograham · #4 08-04-2006, 01:33 AM

you called and got beat by a flush/over pair...tough [censored]. Get your fishy game out of the gutter and then play me one on one amateur.

I wouldve smelled I was beat preflop after the 3.50 raise and laid it down like the shark I am. Live it learn it fish.

carnivalhobo · #5 08-04-2006, 01:53 AM

uh, your thoughts on preflop are wrong.

most people 4bet nothing preflop, his call means not that much, though likely a PP or decent A.

i call this all day.

CaptainNurple · #6 08-04-2006, 02:26 AM

In the absence of a read, I think you have to assume that villain is a "reasonable" player.

I agree with Claunchy that you can't rule out QQ. AA or KK are probably pushing against your re-raise pf, but QQ are smooth-calling a lot of the time.

Any PP much lower than TT is folding pf to your raise; even AQ is folding to your re-raise some of the time. So his likely hands are somewhere in the neighborhood of QQ, or AK/AQ with at least one heart, and a remote chance of something like TT or the other two Jacks.

Thus, chances are pretty good villain's got as many as 14 outs to beat you (the 8 remaining hearts, 3 aces, and 3 kings), not to mention the 2 remaining queens if he's got QQ. 14 outs for villain makes you a 44% dog.

I think best case you're flippin, and you're worse than a flip if he's got AK/AQ with a heart. Pot is just shy of laying you 2:1 (you're calling $68 to win $133), so I think you probably fold.

I think my numbers are right... somebody correct me if they're not.

Just my two cents.

rebuyboy · #7 08-04-2006, 03:13 AM

Lol people don't normally 4-bet QQ preflop or fold pocket pairs preflop either. Give him a range and see if pot odds dictate a call. He could have Ah Ks, As Kh, Ah Qs, As Qh, Ah Ad, As Ad, Kh Kd, Ks Kd, Th Ts etc. i am getting bored but throw in a few lower sets or PPs with flush draw.

CaptainNurple · #8 08-04-2006, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Lol people don't normally 4-bet QQ preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

With all respect, this is wrong.

What do you do with QQ besides raise? You're certainly not going to limp.

[ QUOTE ]
or fold pocket pairs preflop either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again. Yes they do. All the time. Hero's re-raise pf screams high PP. If villain had a low PP, he probably would have folded to the $12 re-raise by Hero unless he's a loose player. Without a read, Hero needs to err on the side of caution and assume villain is a reasonably tight player.

[ QUOTE ]
Give him a range and see if pot odds dictate a call. He could have Ah Ks, As Kh, Ah Qs, As Qh, Ah Ad, As Ad, Kh Kd, Ks Kd, Th Ts etc. i am getting bored but throw in a few lower sets or PPs with flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much what I said above, except you broke it down into different suits, which is unnecessary.

And I disagree with either AA or KK being in the "likely" range. Both are unlikely, and Aces is extremely unlikely. Villain would have re-re-raised either one of those pf most of the time, anywhere from $30 to all-in.

King_S · #9 08-04-2006, 09:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Thus, chances are pretty good villain's got as many as 14 outs to beat you (the 8 remaining hearts, 3 aces, and 3 kings), not to mention the 2 remaining queens if he's got QQ. 14 outs for villain makes you a 44% dog.

I think best case you're flippin, and you're worse than a flip if he's got AK/AQ with a heart. Pot is just shy of laying you 2:1 (you're calling $68 to win $133), so I think you probably fold.

I think my numbers are right... somebody correct me if they're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Cardplayer's Odds Calculator(source), Hero would be a 51.11% favorite to A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], as well as A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] combinations.

Even if your calculation was correct, then it would still be profitable for Hero call getting 2-1 odds.

4_2_it · #10 08-04-2006, 09:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Thus, chances are pretty good villain's got as many as 14 outs to beat you (the 8 remaining hearts, 3 aces, and 3 kings), not to mention the 2 remaining queens if he's got QQ. 14 outs for villain makes you a 44% dog.

I think best case you're flippin, and you're worse than a flip if he's got AK/AQ with a heart. Pot is just shy of laying you 2:1 (you're calling $68 to win $133), so I think you probably fold.

I think my numbers are right... somebody correct me if they're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Cardplayer's Odds Calculator(source), Hero would be a 51.11% favorite to A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], as well as A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] combinations.

Even if your calculation was correct, then it would still be profitable for Hero call getting 2-1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Factor in a made flush, sets and overpairs into villain's range and hero doesn't look too good.