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#1
08-02-2006, 09:36 PM
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5/10 lost with a set
villain is brand spanking new. I don't know if this is a bet/call or check/call on the turn. My fold button broke on the river/i was on mega monkey tilt. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
PokerRoom 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: (5.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls. Turn: (3.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls. River: (5.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls. Final Pot: 9.75 BB 
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#2
08-02-2006, 09:42 PM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
I like a check/call on the turn and a bet/fold on any unimproved river.
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#5
08-03-2006, 07:29 AM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
[ QUOTE ]
I like a check/call on the turn and a bet/fold on any unimproved river. [/ QUOTE ] Huh?? Are we automatically putting villain on a flush draw on the flop? He could have a king, a pair with an Ace kicker, straight draws, any number of hands. He's unknown and he cold-called from the button in a short-handed pot. To me, turn is an auto bet/call. We could likely have the best hand, and if not, we've got outs to call a raise. And if he has a small heart, or even like a ten or jack, our bet might scare him into a fold. And that would be sweet. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] I think the only mistake in this hand was calling the river raise. Although, in in IMHO, its not a huge mistake. Hero is now getting 8.5 to 1, meaning he needs to be right like 12% of the time. In this situation, that's unlikely, given that villain's most likely holding is the Ah because he fearlessly waited till the river to raise hero. But he also could be a wierdo who had a small made flush on the flop and just likes to let someone else bet his hand for him. Or there's a tiny chance that he slowplayed a smaller set, made two pair, etc... Anyways, we're ahead here maybe like 6% of the time (estimate), so this is clearly -EV. However, in moments of stupid calls like this, I often find out valuable information about villain's play when I get to see his hand. Every once in a while, that pays off big time. If he cold-called 2 with Ah2d or 45o, for instance, I put him on my buddy list forever. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] By the way, what did he show you? AQ with a heart?
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#6
08-03-2006, 08:08 AM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
The 2nd paragraph in my last post sounded good at the time, but that's cause I hadn't had any coffee yet. When you know you're beat, that information (that you'll probably get soon anyways) isn't worth a large theoretical portion of a big bet. I'm pretty sure 6% was way too high of an estimate of how often you are ahead. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I still agree with my first paragraph though, even with all my morning eye boogers gone.
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#8
08-03-2006, 12:37 PM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
[ QUOTE ]
esplain? [/ QUOTE ] Ok, well, I expect villain to bet almost anything when checked to here, which takes care of the value aspect of the street for us. Because we have a number of outs, we don't want to bet ourselves, however, and find ourselves getting raised. We then bet the river to make sure that the non flush hands that he may have can't check behind on the river, and we fold to a raise because I cannot really think of something that would raise the river that we beat. So basically, it comes down to the range of hands we put villain on for the turn, and how we expect him to play those hands. I don't really think villain ever checks behind on this board, and if we know villain will bet the turn, I think my line is best.
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#9
08-03-2006, 12:38 PM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
[ QUOTE ]
And if he has a small heart, or even like a ten or jack, our bet might scare him into a fold. [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely not.
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#10
08-03-2006, 02:14 PM
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Re: 5/10 lost with a set
Some argument in favor of check/calling turn, bet/folding this river.
I often check-behind small flushes on this turn if I were villain. But pretty much all other hands I bet out here. Unless the hero overuses screw plays, then I check behind top pair/two pair/set. There isnt any reads on villain so it's hard to tell how he thinks.
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